Something on Terry Pratchett, polemics, unfairness and hohos

A photo posted by Sam Turner (@samueljturner) on Feb 8, 2015 at 5:45am PST

A long time ago there were three books in school that I used to read regularly and they were called Truckers and Diggers and Wings.

A short time after that someone pushed me towards the Discworld series and I read Men At Arms. I can't remember how I got hold of it, but I suspect it was from a library. I'm lucky to now own it and it sits on a shelf next to almost every other Discworld book in existence.

In Men At Arms there is a passage during which the likeable tyrant of Ankh-Morpork, Lord Vetinari, watches someone fall into a hoho (which is like a haha but deeper), as designed by Bloody Stupid Johnson. It is still the single funniest passage of literature I have ever read.

Less time ago, though still a decent while into the past, I was standing in a school as a naive student teacher. I expressed the opinion to the regular teachers that I thought Terry Pratchett would one day be taught in more schools than he was not. There was general tittering at the oik in the corner. Some time later I decided that teachers weren't for me and it was probably best I not become one.

Terry Pratchett made our world better by showing it how stupid it really was and trying to suggest how it could undergo a self-improvement course.

Today, many people have comforted themselves and others and me at the news of his death by sharing quotations uttered by his version of Death and reading his stories. This is fine and natural. Stories are there to comfort as much as to confront. They are also there to be angry.

In Pratchett's Discworld, Death was still hugely inconvenient but at least he was polite and tried to be fair. He was, 'just very good at his job'.

Vetinari, like many tyrants, was personable and charming, and acted on deep-seated self-interest. At least though he never masqueraded as anything as dishonest as democracy. His aims occasionally overlapped with what might be called 'good' and eventually he fell into the mantle of anti-hero. He also watched people fall into hohos and made us laugh.

Vetinari existed because nice, functioning tyrants do not (but should). Death was pleasant, funny and a realist because Death is not (but should be). Terry Pratchett wrote things that were funny but also that were angry because the world was not as it should be and he saw that fact with perfect clarity. To the casual observer Discworld is a Comedy but look a little deeper and it is a polemic.

Today though is not a day to go any further into analysis of how great a writer Terry Pratchett was. Today is a day to reflect on how unfair the world is, and how much better the suggestions in his stories made it.

(This by Neil Gaiman from September 2014 is the best thing you will read on Terry Pratchett today.)

2015 MLB Predictions

Fifteen out of Thirty! 15/30!

2014 will truly be remembered as a magical year.

Sure, it might still only be 50% correct and it wouldn't pass most basic exams, but a .500 batting average will do very nicely, thank you very much and it certainly beats the previous 'high' line of 6/30 / .200 on 2012's season.

Here's the 'how I did last year' breakdown, with correct picks in bold.

AL East: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins
AL West: Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Mariners, Astros
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres

Yes, you read that right: that's every team correct in the AL Central! Three out of five teams in each one of the NL Divisions! No less than four correct division winners! Truly an amazing time to be alive.

Let's blame the AL East on the fact that the AL East is notoriously unpredictable and the Yankees are there, so everyone hates it any way.

For an encore, I can offer this limited, but none-the-less considered wisdom for 2015. Advice: do not rely on it if you are considering staking your house against the house.

As a comparison I'm taking the rankings of ESPN's excellent David Schoenfield, which you can read here, here, here, here and here and, of course, MLB's own player previews. Last season's standings are here.

AL East: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rays

Not one team right last year and, with an ever-changing cast of players, is it any wonder? Here goes...

I agree that the Yanks look bad. Their pitching seems ready made for injuries. Their candidate for #faceofMLB was Brett Gardner. Now, I like Gardner, but he's not a superstar and if the Yankees think he is then they're in more trouble than they know.

I like the Red Sox trades and rotation and, more than that, I like what they have at the fringes. I'm not sure Nava will be sixth choice outfielder, as per the player previews, but if he is that's a very nice sixth outfielder to have. Similar can be said about relief pickups like Alexi Ogando, although the same on injuries as above applies there.

People have said some nice things about the Rays recently, but it feels partially in sympathy. I like their rotation, but without a doubt they need hitting and look thinner there than arguably any team in the league. Loney at first continues to be endemic of what they're missing. They've lost too much in trades this offseason to maintain last year's fourth.

All of which leaves the Orioles and the Blue Jays, both of whom I struggle with. The Jays look strong (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion - hope you like catching home run balls Toronto!) but the last time this happened I backed them and they choked. I continue to think the Orioles look average on paper but 96 wins last year says otherwise and you have to wonder where the drop off comes from.

I'm going for the Jays again and then the Red Sox' improvements to get them to the playoffs. Out of this division though, as an improvement on last year, I'd be delighted to walk away with the bottom two correct.

AL Central: Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Twins

A really, really interesting division. Perhaps more than any other battle, I can't wait to see if the Indians (or even someone else...) can break the Tigers' dominance. Detroit look shakier than ever all of a sudden, with questions over Miggy, V-Mart and Verlander.

Tempting though it is to say that they will finally topple, for now, I'm going to say the Tigers maintain their position, with the Indians jumping the Royals, who have lost a lot since their World Series trip.

In fact... maybe the White Sox jump the Royals too. They've made improvements to the starting rotation, hitting and depth. I like them, I like their moves and I can't say that for the Royals. I certainly don't see Chicago way down as the 23rd best team in the league, which is where Schoenfield puts them. At the very least, they compete for the 2-3-4 positions and it finishes fairly closely.

A close-to-certainty: the Twins remain rooted. I'll stick my neck out on Chicago and a big backwards Royals step.

AL West: Mariners, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Astros

Houston didn't finish bottom! My pick for the top did! Funny old game this.

Having picked them last year, I now don't understand what Texas are doing. The trade for Gallardo suggests they think they can compete with the current roster, evidence from last year says otherwise. When you look at the lineup it is starting to feel like a selection of 'names' who are going backwards; Beltre, Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo. If they stay fit, maybe they challenge and heroically fail. If everyone goes the same way as Jurickson Profar already has then this could be a very expensive last-placed disaster.

Meanwhile, in Oakland, who knows where Billy Beane thinks the Athletics are? Like the Cardinals and the Orioles: underestimate them at your peril. This year though, I really can't make the argument for it. The pitching looks really good (Gray has Cy Young potential) but Kazmir could easily be far worse and people like Billy Butler are big candidates to not fill sizeable trade gaps. Do they stay ahead of Houston and the Rangers? Possibly, on pitching alone.

At the top, it does feel like it's the Mariners or the Angels. Increasingly, the Mariners are convincing me. It also feels as though maybe they have a trade left in them, which the current team more than merits. Does Cruz get them over the line? He did it for the Orioles, so why not?

NL East: Nationals, Marlins, Mets, Braves, Phillies

I'm taking as a starter here that the top and bottom are set. The Nationals are World Series favourites, with good reason (that rotation is great) and my team, the Phillies, continue to be awfully managed by Amaro and admit themselves they are at least two years off competing. If they don't get decent returns for Hamels and Lee, at least, then they are going to be further off than that.

The middle three could be in any order. Yes, Atlanta are going backwards after a brief spurt of activity, but the Marlins and Mets have off-setting flaws; the former is struggling for pitching and the latter can't bat. Last year I wrote about how Daniel Murphy predicting as 3rd 'best' batter was indicative of the Mets problems. This year he predicts as first. That is a problem. The Marlins without Fernandez have a larger-than-last-year Latos as their opening day starter. That too is a problem.

I'm taking the Marlins for several reasons. Firstly, the Stanton contract shows evidence they want to win, so if they're there or there abouts I can see trades. I don't see that from the Mets and the Braves are stating they won't do that. The Marlins also have three young pitchers who could improve, behind innings-eater, mid-rotation Dan Haren, whilst I don't see a great deal of growth out of the Mets hitters. The Marlins can plug their flaws but the Mets will struggle to hide theirs.

Make an argument for that middle three as you see fit though and I won't complain: Atlanta still have a good rotation and Matt Harvey could win a Cy Young behind a Mets team that make the playoffs.

NL Central: Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Brewers

This is a deceptively difficult division this year. The Cub's plan is starting to form (the Lester deal says the team, at least, believe that). The Reds are probably in decline, but how far? The Pirates will challenge again but can they take The Cards? No one liked the Brewers last year and yet they led the division for ages.

Schoenfield goes for the Reds in dead last, which I just don't see. I'm not keen on the Brewers hitting or pitching, whilst the Reds still have Votto, Bruce, Frazier and Cueto - that's a set of stars that could, on their day, challenge, let alone struggle to finish fourth. I know you could trot out a good 'Top 3' for the Brewers, and a couple of good starting pitchers, but I can't see them matching up and I see the pitching in particular as a good bet for a decline.

Meanwhile, if you take the above two and the Cubs as the bottom three in some order, then you have to accept that the Cubs could easily outrank the two above, or finish at the heap of the pile. There are too many unknowns in that team to back them further than third, which itself is a risk; too many near-to rookies who may or may not perform, too many on-the-verge players who could be anonymous or compete for team MVP (step forwards Dexter Fowler).

At the top, I'll take the Cardinals to fend off the Pirates again. I like the addition of Heyward, they've hardly lost anything important and when you look down the lineup there's just so much consistency, even if you anticipate decline from, say, Peralta. If Wainwright goes down, with this team, surely they go for someone like Hamels or Lee and Bob is indeed your mother's brother. A really difficult division though. Take a lucky dip and your prediction has a shot. I love watching the NL Central.

NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks

If you look at what each team has done then the only candidate for positive movement in this division is surely the Padres. So, the question becomes, do they have enough to beat the Giants? I'd like to think yes, I hope it makes for a competitive division and an interesting NL wildcard race, but it is a stretch.

Look at the infields. The Padres need help. Perhaps one of their SPs and/or Cameron Maybin, who no longer fits in that outfield, gets to be a useful trade piece? If they're serious then I think it needs to happen. Without that sort of help then maybe they beat last year's 77-85, maybe they even beat Schoenfield's predicted 80-82 and make parity, but I can't see them beating the Giants of last year's 88-74, nor whatever this year's team make (possibly/probably a little less than that). Close, but the Padres are a year and a couple of trades away. Like the set up for 2016 though, if ownership holds its nerve.

The Dodgers are surely a lock. You know you're good when you make trades you didn't really need to, which still make the team better. Grandal in for Ellis most days as catcher is such a trade. There are teams who would kill for an on-his-day average+ catcher like Ellis (step forward Phillies). Hollywood just replaced him with a better one. The guy hit .270 with 13 home runs and a .373 OBP two years ago for God's sake!

At the bottom, the MLB player predictions put Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Aaron Hill and completely unknown Cuban Yasmany Tomas ahead of Mark Trumbo for the Diamondbacks. Ouch. The hitting looks suspect and the rotation doesn't look much better. It actually may be a little worse.

I'll take the Rockies over the Diamondbacks then, as Schoenfield does. I actually think the Rockies hitting is starting to look good (if Tulowitzki and Gonzalez turn up), but any rotation reliant on Kyle Kendrick in the middle is going to hold you back. He seems a great guy but he's the sort of player where nobody would be surprised if he posted something like 5-15 and that is a problem. That said, if the Padres get stage fright, I can see an argument for the Rockies challenging third. I don't see that argument for the Diamondbacks.

2014 MLB Predictions

It's time once again to assess last year's bout of mediocrity and lay down a whole new attempt at awfulness.

2013 teams picked in the correct position:

AL East: 0/5
AL Central: 1/5
AL West: 2/5

NL East: 1/5
NL Central: 0/5
NL West: 1/5

A 'grand' total of 5/30, which is even worse than 2012's effort of 6/30, itself hardly guaranteeing me a place alongside Nostradamus.

How badly will I get it wrong this year? Time to find out...

AL East: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays

This division is now so much of a muchness that it wouldn't be an absolute shock if the above order was to be reversed come the final day of the season. OK... maybe not the Jays at the top.

The Orioles have made a late bid to improve with Ubaldo and Cruz but I still don't see them besting the other three and the main reason the bottom two are at the bottom is pitching: MLB's own player predictions lists each team's closer as their best pitcher, which is never a good thing. There's questions over every single one of each team's rotation, including their Aces: Ubaldo and Dickey weren't exactly lights out last year. If Baltimore can sort their staff out (and Bud Norris can figure out how to get left handers out) then maybe they have a chance: a middle order of Jones, Davis, Cruz and Machado says as much.

Tampa separate themselves from the bottom two, and arguably the Sox in several ways but mainly because their ace is a genuine, sub-3.00 ERA, leader. Price might not be there for eternity but while he is, the Rays will try to win. You can expect Myers to improve further and whilst their DH/1B combo of Joyce and Loney doesn't set pulses racing, it should provide enough backup to Longoria and Myers to keep them in contention.

Last year there were 12 wins between the Red Sox and the Yankees but Ellsbury has switched allegiance and the Yanks have gained a beast of a third pitcher in Tanaka. I also like the Yankees depth and where Middlebrooks, Bradley and Bogaerts used to look like good backups or occasionals in Boston, they're now going to have to turn it on every day. New York also gets to take a year off from the A-Rod circus and that could be the big boost they needed. It'll be tight at the top, but I like the Yankees again, especially their top three starters and any problem for Pedroia, Ortiz or Napoli leaves Boston looking wanting.

AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins

There's no way the Tigers won't take this division again. Even having traded Prince's home runs, their lineup looks incredible and their top three pitchers (yes, I'm including Sanchez alongside Verlander and Scherzer, he gets forgotten too easily and he can be fanatastic) are all All Star quality. They only won this division by a game last year. It should have been much more.

With Abreu and a rebuilding process that looks like it's coming along nicely, you can now officially put down the White Sox as dark horses, rather than make-weights. They've got the best pitcher in the division who isn't employed by Detroit (Sale) and with a bit of luck and production from their new first baseman, Avisail and Eaton, it doesn't take a great leap of faith to see them competing.

I like the Indians but again, this division feels like it comes down to pitching. Nobody, save Detroit, has a rotation to write home about but Cleveland, in particular, have a top two who aren't far away from 4.00+ ERAs. The Royals have this perpetually 'young and promising' team which, in the shape of Hosmer, actually started to properly deliver last year. If you look at the full Kansas lineup, it actually looks pretty strong from top to bottom: a lower half of Moustakas, Escobar and Cain is no terrible thing.

The middle three could really be anywhere. I'd say the top and bottom are set. The Twins look awful and have done for a few years now. As a Phillies fan, the Revere/Worley trade now looks even better for us than it did when it was struck.

AL West: Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Mariners, Houston

I love the A's, but I do find the argument that they're a superstar short of a Championship pretty convincing, and I wonder if, behind Darvish and a bona fide first baseman, this couldn't be Texas' year to take the whole thing.

That said, given Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando's injury history, you wonder if Texas haven't considered adding one more starter. They were reported to be in the Ervin Santana mix but let him become a Brave and it's starting to look like there's not a great deal more out there.

The Mariners big Cano-shaped batting improvement has been somewhat overshadowed in early Spring by the worries around Iwakuma and Walker. With those two, their rotation is only bested by the A's in this division but without them, you're back to relying on Felix far too much. Even given Cano, the Mariners' lineup just doesn't scream 'division winners' at you, or even 'this is good enough to beat the Angels' who, lets not forget, have a Trout.

There's been some nice, encouraging, words said about the Astros this year, but I just don't see it: their rotation is an anonymous collection of 4.00+ ERA pitchers and though Jose Altuve is a good player, he should not be any team's number one ranked batter.

The battles here are Rangers v Athletics and Angels v Mariners.

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies

Because of our history and Cliff Lee, it's tempting to stick the Phillies in the middle of this division again, or perhaps in 4th, the one game behind the Mets they found themselves last year. There's a problem though: I just don't see any evidence to support predicting that position.

The internal fractions last year were blamed on Manuel's management style and Papelbon being an arsehole. It's already clear with the Rollins saga that those elements, though certainly factors, were not the whole story. The lineup features only smatterings of hope: Revere has been OK this Spring, there's no reason Brown can't repeat on last year. Elsewhere there's only questions with negative answers: Utley and Howard are not their old selves, neither is Ruiz (at least with a bat). The prospects don't look much better. Ruf already has a problem, Asche does not look good enough to start at third but will. The backups (Mayberry, Galvis, Frandsen... Abreu!) are not great. I can very easily see the scenario where we finish last and I don't think it's any longer a long shot to say it's possible.

For that to happen though, the Marlins need to step up much further. I am increasingly swayed towards the fact that they can. Fernandez is obviously great and if they can just build a little bit more and hold a little bit of positivity, I can see them jumping the Mets, whose additions do not look startling (Colon? No.) and whose existing crop is not doing David Wright any favours (Daniel Murphy starts the season as their 3rd 'best' batter).

Like last year, the top is a competition between the Braves and the Nationals. Clearly Atlanta is desperate to win: the pre-season additions, almost immediately after losing players to injury smack of it. Because of that, I just think the Nationals and their settled clubhouse have the edge. Harper has NL MVP quality, the top two in the rotation could both bother the 20-win bracket.

NL Central: Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs

The middle three of this division make for one of the most interesting battles in baseball at the moment. The Pirates have a solid staff and will want to build on last year. The Brewers have Braun back and, if Spring is anything to go by, back at some level of excellent. The Reds batting lineup is close to devastating, particularly in that ballpark.

The top and the bottom are more set; the Cardinals are many people's choice to win the whole thing and, on recent season's evidence, you can understand why. A lot of pundits think the Cubs are a year or two from a lineup full of players who are now A+ prospects. I'm sceptical. They are awful currently and prospects have a habit of not being that once they get seriously tested (just ask Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro). Relying solely on yet-to-arrive prospects (their trades have been poor, and suggest they're waiting for big things from the internal crop) is, at best, risky; at worst, dodgy.

Which leaves a decision to be made on how to rank the mid-table. I really like the Brewers' pitching. All of a sudden they've ended up with a rotation which runs from Estrada to Garza to Lohse to Gallardo (in some order) and that's good in any language. I can see them troubling the Reds this year and I can certainly see them besting the Pirates, who I don't think have improved their batting anywhere near enough to keep themselves on the ladder.

NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres

Ignore the top three for a second: the bottom two here are set. The Padres and Rockies are a distance from their divisional rivals, even if you admit that the Rockies best three batters are significant talents. That though is undermined by their pitching, and you can ditto that for San Diego, who tried to make a rotation better with Josh Johnson, which is the definition of a futile effort.

So then we're back to the top and the all-of-a-sudden injury-prone Diamondbacks, who I like but can see getting upset by the Giants. It was pitching that won the Giants their Championships and if the real Lincecum stands up and is supported by the real Morse then I can really see them doing something. A big plus on their side: Buster Posey, a bona fide superstar.

The Dodgers, despite their perceived lack of depth (though not in an outfield which has the luxury of Van Slyke, who I like a lot, as a reserve) should surely have this division wrapped up though. Some astute additions (Dan Haren) have bolstered the lower ends of an already strong lineup. Puig does concern me though. He's one of the most exciting talents around but his Opening Day whiff (just this morning, as I write this) and his Spring performance hint that he's not happy with this lead-off experiment. And if Puig isn't happy, I have a feeling he's not just going to sit their and let no-one know about it.

I'm on a bike... and other things to do in Amsterdam

I'm on a bike.

As stereotypical as tulips, gouda and being good-but-not-quite-good-enough at football, biking is very Dutch and therefore something You Should Do on any Amsterdam trip.

We rented bikes from Amsterdam Black Bikes, who supply bikes that blend in, thus ensuring you don't look like a moron tourist, wobbling your way around the city on a bright red/green/orange contraption.

The one thing you'll learn from walking around Amsterdam on foot is that everyone on a bike (which basically means... everyone) is a bit of a nutter, so thus outfitted with your bike to blend in, the only way of actually doing so is to ride it like you stole it. Avoiding trams, pedestrians and everything else in your path: optional.

Far better then is to get a bike from the World Trade Centre location (about 5 minutes walk from tram 5's stop at Prinses Irenestraat) and head South to Amsterdamse Bos, a large forest with interesting trails for walking, cycling, rowing and horses. Those craving street cycling will get plenty on the way there and could do worse than a swift jaunt through the De Pijp neighbourhood afterwards, which is quieter of vehicular obstacles and has some of Amsterdam's nicer looking residential abodes. A ride to and around parts of Bos, back North to the Olympic Stadium and East to and around De Pijp is doable at a pace that hardly breaks a sweat in 3-3.5 hours or so, with breaks for touristy sights and in-saddle refreshment. If you must head into the centre (there's really no point: take a tram) then make sure you're confident on a bike, know where you're heading and don't mind your bones breaking.

Other things to do in Amsterdam...

Attempt to take a picture of the Amsterdam sign

This is the most pointless thing to do in the centre and yet the one everyone has a go at. It's practically impossible to just get you and/or your other half in unless you've got a paparazzi-level wide-angle lens or you turn up at 5am and even fitting the full thing in with other bystanders included is difficult. What you end up with is a picture of some random tourist with your girlfriend somewhere in the background.

Pointless.

The Museums

If you're not a museum-type person then be warned that Amsterdam is set up either for people to sample the local 'erb or for people to go to a museum. Four of Tripadvisor's Top 10 attractions are museums and if you knock out the outdoor spaces to wander around then only two of the 10 (the library and a concert hall) are indoor things to do which aren't museums. I'll type 'museums' in to this paragraph just one more time in case you haven't got the point yet.

We did the big three which, in no particular order, are Anne Frank House, Rijksmuseum and The Van Gogh Museum. If there's a criticism of all of the museums it's that they're very 'come and see' spaces, rather than 'come and learn'. There's nothing in The Van Gogh Museum, for example, about the end of his life; the time spent in Auvers or his death, as covered by Pialat's film.

All of the guide books will tell you to turn up early to avoid queueing and certainly if you're there in the school holidays that is absolutely the case. The queues for Van Gogh and The Rijksmuseum at around lunchtime on two of the days we were there were biblical: even worse than your local post office.

We did Van Gogh on a non-holiday Monday however, turned up at around 9.30am and walked straight in. You'll still need to wait a little / crane you neck / shove people out of the way to see Sunflowers.

Jordaan

Amsterdam's up-and-coming neighbourhood is a trove of independent bars, shops and eateries and it's perfect for a lazy mooch and several drinks. It's not far from Anne Frank House so combining the two is perfect for an early start, followed by a late afternoon. The Lonely Planet Amsterdam guide has an all-encompassing walk which will take you past many of the eateries and show you the quaint-yet-stylish residential streets. Alternatively, this looks to be an extended version of it.

Making a city trip go further

I've written before about breaking out of the city on a city trip and it remains my top recommendation for anyone heading for a long weekend away in a foreign central hub. For Brits, imagine coming to the UK as a foreigner and only seeing London and its sites, staying in some pleasant suburb. You'll hardly leave with a true picture of the nation.

Here's my patented squiggly-edged map of the Amsterdam area, courtesy of Google maps.

We went to Haarlem via train (about €4 each return) and had a nice wander round the market there. There's also a huge and imposing cathedral you can go and visit for those minded to do such things and another smattering of smart, fairly inexpensive cafe-eateries. We did it in half a day because that was all of the time we could spare out of the centre, though several of the guides suggest doing two of the options (Haarlem and Leiden for example) on one train ticket, across a full day. Sounds a good idea to me. Other popular options include Alkmaar or heading further South for a day in Rotterdam. The rail network is great and inexpensive so I can how both could work.

Bargain evening meal

People get sniffy about Wagamama's and it might not be the height of international cuisine Amsterdam has to offer but, owing to its business-orientated location, the Wagamama's at the World Trade Centre actually offers deals to encourage you to eat there at the weekend: and good deals too. We got half price food on the entire menu (automatically applied, no voucher) and spent something like €17 for two ramen mains, a side of edamame, a beer and a wine, which is pretty damn bargainous, especially in Amsterdam, which can be expensive. If you're on a budget or need a cheap meal or two, you could genuinely do far worse for far more.

Plus, sometimes, having biked around for several hours, all you want is a bowl of spicy soupy stuff and enough noodles to feed a legion of angry pedal-powered Dutch people.

A marketing lesson from a Maltese pizza shop: positioning is everything

View from the main street.

View from the side street, down which no-one walks.

2013 MLB Predictions

So, first up, how did I get on last year...

AL East: 1/5 (in the correct finishing position)
AL Central: 1/5
AL West: 2/4

NL East: 0/5
NL Central: 2/6
NL West: 0/5

Total right: 6/30 or 20%

I think we've established that if you're looking for expert opinion, you've come to the wrong place.

Still, something to aim at. And by 'something', I mean: 'try and get one right in each league at least hey, lest you end up looking like a total moron'.

The aim last year was to compare to Olbermann (I matched his previous year's total of 6, albeit he missed off predicting two leagues, so got 30%) but he's a bit of a spotty blogger and doesn't seem to have done his this year yet so instead I'll turn to Yahoo's Jeff Passan and Tim Brown, who jointly came up with a set of detailed pre-Spring rankings which can be read through here but which, simplified, equate to the following standings (team to finish in 1st listed 1st).

AL East: Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Twins
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners, Astros

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies

Without further ado...


AL East: Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles

If The Angels', The Dodgers' and, erm, The Marlins' projects taught MLB anything last year, it should have been that you can't build a title-winning team in a year. Luckily for the Blue Jays they've been building up to it for a while (I picked them for 2nd and playoffs last year) but the Rays have been doing it for even longer. On paper, sure, the Rays should be nowhere near this division but on paper the Rays probably shouldn't even exist, yet they keep competing, year-on-year, in baseball's toughest division. The Jays will make it this year though, through the wildcard, from whence they could go all the way. Yahoo's prediction that the Red Sox remain rooted seems far-fetched given the core of Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia and Big Papi mediate a not-very-good rotation. The Yankees, trying desperately for the budget cap and distracted by A-Rod even when he isn't with the team, should still have enough to be relatively competitive.

AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins

In an awful division, James Shields might be all the Royals need to make it out of a crowded mid-table of average franchises, heading in wildly out-of-kilter directions. The Twins look awful, the White Sox surely can't repeat last year and the Indians have made some noticeable improvements over last year but still won't be great enough. The Tigers should walk this for years to come but, hopefully, the Royals/Indians will do enough this year to keep it at least semi-interesting.

AL West: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Astros

No team is too big to fail but the Angels are getting there, and the tantalising prospect of an Angels/Dodgers World Series looms at some point... on paper. They're helped by the Rangers new weaknesses; no Napoli, no Hamilton (now with the Angels), two of last year's stars. Oakland won't repeat based on the fact that many of their wins last year were down to the luck of the walk-off but they do look better than the Rangers and Beane believes they can take it all, so look out for trades late on if they remain competitive. The Mariners are improved and may even run the Rangers tight if they can convince a couple more to join. The Astros are still the worst team in baseball but hey, they do have a nice new logo.

NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins

If it wasn't for the Marlins player-dumping then this could have been the most interesting division in baseball. As it is, both they and the Mets will just be looking to avoid bottom spot. The demise of The Phillies has been greatly exaggerated. A .500 team, if you describe them as having a top rotation but a middling batting order then you're also describing the Nationals. The former have made a good long-term pick-up (Revere) and a good short-term pick-up (Young). The latter re-signed LaRoche, who's 33 and not getting any better than he was last year. Still, the status quo is changing, the Nationals do seem to have the best pitching and the Braves have the feel good factor of B.J. and Justin. The top three are changeable but I'm with Yahoo: Washington has the edge in what, at the start of the season, looks an interesting fight.

NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers

For the second straight off-season, Ryan Braun has been linked to PEDs. Make of that what you will but with him or without him, the Brewers are in decline, whilst the Cubs and Pirates are building from rock bottom in the former's case and not-too-far away from that in the latter's. Last year's lessons learned by me: underestimate the Cardinals at your peril. The Reds should still be too strong for them though, boasting a rotation where a still-decent Bronson Arroyo is now a 5th starter and Chapman hits hitters at 105mph-plus. Yahoo has the Reds as the 4th best in MLB and, whilst that might be too high, World Series odds of 13/1 in some markets are asking to be backed.

NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies

Last year's lesson number two: it may be easy to hate the Giants, but don't underestimate them either. Their rotation looks good-to-great, the real Tim Lincecum may be back and the Diamondbacks, the only other real competitors save for LA, should be the 13-games back that they were last year. That leaves the newly Magic Dodgers and their supposedly loaded pitching staff which may still have to rely on Josh Beckett as the third starter. That could work both for and against them depending if Beckett is dealing or swilling beer in the bullpen. Same factors apply to all the old Boston mob (how hungry - for wins - are they?), plus an increasingly injury-prone Matt Kemp. Stay healthy and the league is theirs, plus a Kershaw led kamikaze at the whole thing.

On First Time Cat Ownership

This is Jenson.

He currently has kitten milk on his chin. Jenson is a male cat of indistinct breed, above average coat shine and below average ability not to fall off things backwards whilst trying to eat his own tail.

We have had Jenson for about four months (I think. He thinks too. He seems as bad at remembering birthdays as I am). This means that my total time as someone who owns a cat has now reached a peak of about four months.

Jenson is having to adapt to someone who has never owned a cat before. For instance, when I shout 'fetch', he looks at me as if I am talking Klingon. Or dog. When I shout 'get him' and throw him out of the door in the direction of a cat who has invaded my garden, he looks at me with something approaching disdain and goes back to sleep. I haven't actually done the last one yet because he's not allowed out but I am not ruling out trying it in the near future. He'll soon learn.

Equally, I am having to adapt to first time cat ownership. One thing I have noticed is that the pain is greater from teething cats than from teething dogs. Here is my arm. Jenson is in the background, trying to decide whether he is a panther or not.

This is what my arm happens to look like this morning but really, it could be a picture of my arm on any given morning since Jenson arrived. It could also be a picture of Jenson on any given morning since he arrived. He contemplates whether he is a panther or not quite a lot. This is a picture of my leg.

Sorry you had to see that, my leg is not pretty. This injury was gained when, in eagerness to extract Jenson's teeth from my arm I pushed him off the sofa and he attempted to stay on the sofa by ice-picking my leg with his built-in ice picks.

It's not all bad. This is Jenson's favourite toy.

This is Jenson trying to decide between my hand, his favourite toy and watching the washing machine spin round.

It is very difficult to describe Jenson's favourite toy as anything other than a rat. This has led to various instances of high-brow humour in which phrases like 'Jenson, get your rat off the bed' and 'Jenson's been playing with his rat for hours' are now commonplace. I am sorry to say that we have not yet worn the Jenson's rat jokes out. Nor has Jenson worn his rat out through too much play.

It is also not bad when you have an hour or two off work and Jenson shows his appreciation that he isn't on his own this morning by coming and sitting on your keyboard. I don't really care that it has taken me much longer than normal to write this, because I have a deep, satisfied purring emanating from my laptop, where normally it only makes strange and unattractive clicking noises.

In a world of clicking laptops we all need a Jenson.