Premier League Predictions 2012-13

This is becoming dangerously close to being a site solely dedicated to predictions of dubious worth for various sporting competitions. Be that as it may, The Premiership starts tomorrow, so here's how it will end. Probably.

1 - Manchester City

It will be tougher for City this year (and they only won it in the final seconds last year!) and, as yet, they haven't strengthened well at all but they should still have enough spine to their team to take the title again. Hart, Kompany, Toure/Silva and Aguero are an incredible core to have and, sans injuries, its difficult to imagine a much stronger team. They didn't need Van Persie and they didn't get him so fans need to stop worrying about who did and focus on the players already there. Another centre-back before the end of the transfer window strengthens their position no end.

2 - Manchester United

Van Persie is 29 and coming off the back of an awful Euros so he might not be the megastar United clearly hope he is. Ferguson has gambled the kitty on a striker when they needed a midfielder but they needed one of those last season and they still managed to finish second, a smidgen away from the title. I don't think they've got enough to overcome City when it matters and the defence can be shaky.

3 - Chelsea

The greatest threat to the title leaving Manchester. Chelsea looked good against City when it was 11 vs 11 in the Community Shield but they have an inexperienced manager and an ageing core. That said, Lampard looked good on England duty mid-week and if Cahill and Luiz can fill in solidly when Terry picks up his inevitable injury then they might have a shot. They've spent bigger than a lot of people realise in the Summer and the pressure will soon be on Di Matteo if the wins aren't forthcoming.

4 - Liverpool

If Liverpool can sign Clint Dempsey and one out of the two of Nuri Sahin and Christian Tello then they look good for a tilt at fourth or higher. Joe Allen and Fabio Borini fill two of the huge gaps in the side and Dempsey/Sahin would fill another couple. Holding on to the established centre-back pairing of Agger/Skrtel is a must though as is starting off with an at least 'OK' record; their first three games at home are City, United and Arsenal. Rodgers buys are the most aspirational out of all their recent managers and his vision the most complete.

5 - Arsenal

The same faults that were there last year are still there, only now they must paper over them without Van Persie and (probably) without Alex Song. Jenkinson will probably start the season in the side, which shows how weak the team can become when injuries hit. Wenger is relying on two strikers with class but no Premiership pedigree and he will be under pressure from the naysayers very early doors, should the side slip to a couple of defeats.

6 - Tottenham

Whether AVB will be given more time here than at Chelsea is debatable, but at least he doesn't have the challenge of dismantling an ageing side of club legends hanging over him. Player power won at The Bridge but here he seems to have much more freedom... for now. A hot Jermaine Defoe is an under-rated property and he will need to be hot if Spurs are to stick with their current squad.

7 - Everton

Moyes works another wonder with a squad that, on paper, should probably be in the bottom eight. Ferguson's natural successor and one of the few managers who has already proven himself up to the task, several times.

8 - Sunderland

Currently, the squad looks threadbare but don't bet against Martin O'Neil. This position should count as over-achievement but how it will be seen at the Stadium of Light is anyone's guess.

9 - Newcastle

Second-season syndrome will hit Castle this season, after the dizzying spells of last year. Defences should be ready for Cisse (as they were for Ba in the second half of last year) and their signings look like 'ones for the future' in the main. Starting off with a lot of injuries too.

10 - QPR

Good investment in the off season and Hughes is starting to learn his on-the-pitch trade much more than at previous jobs. Needs to keep Tarabt quiet and ship out Barton to secure a bunch of happy campers but then this team could start to blossom. The incredibly entertaining Djibril Cisse needs to learn how not to get sent off. Tenth and playing good football would be a brilliant season for Rangers.

11 - Norwich

Over-achieved last season but a good replacement manager and some sharp signings. Hughton pips Lambert's Villa to 11th on the final day.

12 - Aston Villa

Lambert is good but the doom around Villa is near-unliftable and the squad still looks very weak. This would count as a success but probably won't be.

13 - Swansea

Laudrup is such an unknown quantity and last season's squad are being dissembled at an alarming rate. Not near the heady heights of last year's performance but still OK for a side only promoted a year ago. Could do with another striker. If Graham is injured they are in 'it'.

14 - Stoke City

Potentially in trouble. Pulis' transfer dealings look frustrated and the team - whilst not lacking in bite - still feels like it's missing a number of technically gifted players. Their inability to unlock teams away from the den of the Britannia is telling.

15 - West Ham

Big Sam will keep the Hammers up but don't expect it to be pretty or convincing. Diarra is a coup of a signing and will steady the midfield whilst Nolan ploughs forwards in support of Cole and a.n.other. A good start could see them push much higher than this.

16 - Fulham

It's difficult to see this team doing much and Jol's inability to see that Danny Murphy still very much had another Premiership season in him is befuddling. Petric is a good signing and should give them the goals to avoid real trouble. How long will the manager get? An early tip to see the door.

17 - Wigan

They've escaped before. They'll (probably) escape again.

18 - West Brom

Clarke's a first time boss, his signings look the wrong side of risky and the team wasn't that great to begin with. He should get time at this club but that doesn't mean he can save them. A really tough season is in prospect.

19 - Southampton

Adkins plays really good football but it feels like there's a total lack of experience in this team, especially at the top level. Could surprise a couple of clubs (remember when United used to get tanked by them every so often?) but not much more than that. Sadly through the trap door.

20 - Reading

Everyone's favourite for the drop, no? Pogrebnyak is their lone bit of quality and without brilliant service he won't keep them afloat. The defence could really ship some against the bigger teams. Only Chelsea away to worry about on opening day.

Neil Warnock And The Blame Game

Neil Warnock gave an interview to the BBC this week in which he blamed pretty much everyone apart from himself for getting him the sack from QPR earlier in the month.

This is nothing new for Warnock. Whilst most managers are not averse to throwing a bit of stick at a referee when they lose a game, barely a match goes by without Warnock singling out an official as culpable for his team's poor performance.

Blaming twitter, the chairman, Joey Barton, modern wages, Mark Hughes' agent and everything else under the sun for his lack of a job is merely one step up from blaming a referee for a loss. Warnock is doing what he as always done: shifting the blame from himself to often poorly defined external forces, all apparently intent on making his teams lose.

His record speaks for itself. Where other managers - notably Arsene Wenger - play the blame game and then fall back on trophies and impressive winning records, Warnock cannot.

In 21 games under his stewardship this season, QPR won just four of them. The twelve losses included a 4-0 opening day defeat at the hands of now-nineteenth place Bolton, a 6-0 drubbing by Martin Jol's inconsistent Fulham and two 2-1 losses to Norwich, one of the teams QPR were promoted with, at home and away respectively. His win percentage in charge of QPR in the Premier League was a dismal 19%.

Warnock's other stint in the Premier League was as manager of Sheffield United, whom he got relegated in the 2006/2007 season, blaming Liverpool's much-changed team who lost 1-0 to Fulham during their preparation for that seasons Champions League final. Whilst that result may have been the one that broke the camel's back - the camel presumably taking full blame for the relegation - it does not tell the story of a season.

Sheffield United won ten games, drew eight, lost twenty and finished eighteenth, on the same number of losses as fellow relegated sides Charlton and the dismal, twenty-eight total point-scoring, Watford of that year. His win percentage in 2006/2007 was 26%, i.e; in a season where he got a club relegated he was winning more games than his 2011/2012 QPR side were when he was sacked.

Add Warnock's Premier League stints together and his winning average comes out at just short of 24%. In other words: it will take Warnock a touch more than four games in any given Premier League season before his side registers a win. This is not the record of someone who, over the course of fifty-nine Premier League games, has lost the odd point to a bad refereeing performance. The only way to explain it as such is in the case that Warnock was playing the referee up front and the official kept on missing open nets. This, demonstrably, has not been the case.

The reasons for Warnock's good performance in lower leagues (he got Sheffield and QPR promoted to the top flight) is too easy to write off as happening just because the quality of football is worse. Clearly, Warnock has got the best out of some decent teams and has done so whilst professing ignorance of 'tactics'. Again, singling this out as the root cause is too easy - tactics are necessary just as much in the lower leagues as they are in the top flight.

That said, when you are consistently successful in one league and consistently abject in another, that tells a separate, very internal, story in its own right. Warnock needs to come to terms with the fact that for all the referees, camels, Joey Bartons and other malignant persecutors of his clubs, he just does not seem, currently, to have what it takes to be a Premier League manager. The admittance of this fact could do him wonders.

With thanks to @Afrofilmviewer for The Guardian link.

Football Racism: Why Calling for Blatter's Head is Only the Beginning

screen capture from Blatter's interview, courtesy of BBC

Writing for The Daily Mail last month, Steve Doughty finishes his article about the Patrice Evra and Anton Ferdinand racism incidents by concluding that,

'Mr Evra and Mr Ferdinand, I know you feel insulted. But perhaps in this case you could just put up with it and get on with the game.'

Similarly, FIFA president Sepp Blatter, in an interview yesterday, made comments that may very well finally spell the end of his tenure in charge of football's governing body, suggesting that,

'The one affected by [racism] should say this is a game and shake hands.'

Blatter's quotes will be condemned around the world and, indeed, already have been by Rio (brother of Anton) Ferdinand, amongst other prominent footballing figures.

Doughty's comments, by comparison, were condemned at the time by a handful of commenters on The Mail's website (seventy-one at the final count).

The point is thus: until racism, in all its forms, is stamped out completely, treated with a zero tolerance attitude and singled out wherever it may be, it will continue to prosper and seep into culture.

The world, and, mainly, the press, will string Blatter up from a lamppost because he's a prominent figure who makes good headlines. Doughty, by comparison, seems only to have had to weather a storm that barely reached the level of a gentle breeze.

Society's tolerance of someone suggesting basically the same thing as Blatter, writing for a national newspaper with several thousand readers, allows the idea that racism is merely 'a little bit naughty' to flourish and prosper.

Doughty's article should have been treated with the same level of disdain that Blatter's comments were. We should have, to coin a FIFA phrase which now looks distinctly hypocritical, shown racism the red card. Our continued acceptance of people who fail to do just that informs, breeds and allows a feeling of tolerance towards the intolerant, a problem that is, sadly, not limited to Mr. Blatter and will not be solved merely by demanding his head.

Why Low Priced Cup Football is Pointless

Gresty Road - home of Crewe Alexandra - on a particularly 'busy' night. Picture from Soccerway.

At the start of the season the BBC revealed the findings of their Price Of Football survey. There was nothing particularly surprising in it. The Premier League table, for example, showed that at some of the London clubs in particular (Chelsea, Arsenal, Fulham, Tottenham), vast fees (£100-£80 in some cases) were exchanged for tickets to watch ninety-minutes of entertainment and have the privilege of paying £4 for a pie (Arsenal) in the 15-minute half time break.

My local league team - Crewe Alexandra, League 2 - were neither the worst offenders nor the best practitioners in their division. At £19.50 for most games they're hardly bargain basement but considering Gillingham fans have to stump up £26 to watch their team its not quite the rip-off it could be.

Whether North or South, the unifying factor that most league clubs (outside of the Premiership) have is that they struggle to fill their stadiums. Crewe, for example, will get an average attendance of something like 3,000 fans into their 10,000-seater stadium during the course of the season. It's not hard to see why.

I'm off to Crewe twice this week. Tonight, the mighty Alex take on Macclesfield in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy (JPT) Second Round, whilst at the weekend its Southend in the league. The JPT is generally used by league clubs to encourage new fans and provide bargain cup football for loyal supporters who go to the league games every week. Tonight I'll pay £8 for my ticket. If I had a child (under-11), their admission would be included free. The club bar pre-match is fairly cheap and family-friendly; assuming I wanted a couple of pints and my metaphorical child wanted a couple of J20s it'd be around £4 per round. A pie at half time is £2.90 and a drink is about £1.50. Total cost of the evening for parent and non-existent (in this case) child: £24.80. Not bad.

Kids cinema tickets can cost as little as £1

Until you compare it to the other attractions available. Crewe's local cinema (Reel Crewe) doesn't have anything 11-year old friendly this Wednesday, but from Friday it's showing The Lion King 3D. Adult ticket for next Wednesday night: £5.80. Kid's ticket for a Wednesday night: £5.80. There's no pricing for food and drink on Reel's website but I know they do 'meal deal' style popcorn and drink combos for about £6. Two of them plus the ticket prices: £23.60.

The prices then are comparable and if you assume that actually I wouldn't have the couple of alcoholic drinks budgeted in the first example then the football becomes very attractive.

But wait, this is a cup game, priced low to attract new fans, isn't it? So lets say Crewe play fantastic, my metaphorical kid loves it, 'can we go back next Saturday please, Dad?'

Cost of an adult league ticket to the Southend game: £19.50. Children's (under-11) regular ticket: £5. Pies and drinks at the same price as the other night: £16.80. Cost of Saturday at the football: £41.30. Not far off double.

I'd compare that to the price of the cinema on a Saturday but there's no point. Prices may generally be higher at the weekend (or actually, when you consider the kid's club at £1 a ticket, sometimes lower) but never in a million years will two tickets, two drinks and two popcorns set you back over forty-quid. The cinema reduces its prices on a Wednesday because no-one used to go to the cinema on a Wednesday and they don't need to encourage loyalty to their medium of entertainment. Their Wednesday prices stay that price for the entire year. The football reduces prices to get fans in to unattractive games (maybe one or two a year, before Crewe go out of the cup) but provide no incentive to carry on attending the games after that.

When faced with the option of a football game or a cinema visit (or swimming pool trip, or kick about in the local park and a burger afterwards), the cost-conscious parent only has one option. Crewe's stadium, and many others like it, will stay over half-empty for most of the year. There are many reasons for this but not least of them is the fact that football fails to accept that it needs to compete on price with other leisure activities vying for punter's attention on a consistent basis. The odd inexpensive cup game, as a token gesture to parents who have bigger worries, isn't going to change season-average attendances, or magically create thousands of hungry fans, desperate to spend twice the amount of money they could elsewhere.

Tevez, the Punchline in an Experimental Saga?

Photo from eplreport

Perhaps inevitably it is football that finally forced my hand to start the personal blog I had till now managed to (just) avoid investing significant time in. Last night, Carlos Tevez crossed the line from being the type of whinging modern-day footballer who people love to hate and journalists love to write stories about and entered the strange zone reserved for workers who strike without union permission and, seemingly, without provocation. In any other job Carlos would most likely be sacked and, maybe, that's what will happen to him in the end.

The Carlos Tevez Saga - now with more chapters than The Twilight Saga and significantly more controversial - is really the by-product of The Manchester City Saga, which in itself is top-flight football in microcosm: sport as business pushed to its absolute limits.

Other than the obvious sour taste of experiencing a player so out of touch with reality that he apparently fails to recognise the worldly truth that literally thousands of people would have done for free what he declined to do last night for a reported £150,000 a week, the latest Saga entry left me with two thoughts;

1 - I'm currently reading the outstanding Moneyball for a second time. The book (now a film, due in the UK in November) often takes business theory and applies it to the game of baseball. What it never does is consider 'boom and bust' economics. If it did it would probably conclude that teams experience boom and bust (just look at Leeds United) but not whole sports. The Tevez Saga is endemic of the fact that the only people guaranteed to make money in football are now players and agents - employees of the businesses involved in the footballing economy. In an economy where turning a profit collectively is becoming increasingly difficult and individuals continue to drain money from it, how long before it hits a bust?

2 - The Manchester City Experiment (as they themselves loved to call it under Garry Cook's stewardship) now looks to have its first high profile failure. Sure, Jerome Boatang (who, incidentally, played for Bayern in their 2-0 victory against City) left after a season where he only made sixteen appearances, Mario Balotelli has (and will continue to have) his problems, Emmanuel Adebayor voiced his concerns and now occupies the weird hinterland reserved for the expensive loanee, but these are mere shadows of the man so hailed when he first arrived that he may as well have been dubbed 'Brian' on the spot. Now it seems (and well done everyone who spotted this punchline), he's just a very naughty boy and one that threatens to derail The Experimental Saga Of Manchester City Football Club.