View from the side street, down which no-one walks.
Friday, 28 June 2013
A marketing lesson from a Maltese pizza shop: positioning is everything
View from the main street.
View from the side street, down which no-one walks.
View from the side street, down which no-one walks.
Monday, 11 February 2013
2013 MLB Predictions
So, first up, how did I get on last year...
AL East: 1/5 (in the correct finishing position)
AL Central: 1/5
AL West: 2/4
NL East: 0/5
NL Central: 2/6
NL West: 0/5
Total right: 6/30 or 20%
I think we've established that if you're looking for expert opinion, you've come to the wrong place.
Still, something to aim at. And by 'something', I mean: 'try and get one right in each league at least hey, lest you end up looking like a total moron'.
The aim last year was to compare to Olbermann (I matched his previous year's total of 6, albeit he missed off predicting two leagues, so got 30%) but he's a bit of a spotty blogger and doesn't seem to have done his this year yet so instead I'll turn to Yahoo's Jeff Passan and Tim Brown, who jointly came up with a set of detailed pre-Spring rankings which can be read through here but which, simplified, equate to the following standings (team to finish in 1st listed 1st).
AL East: Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Twins
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners, Astros
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies
Without further ado...
AL East: Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles
If The Angels', The Dodgers' and, erm, The Marlins' projects taught MLB anything last year, it should have been that you can't build a title-winning team in a year. Luckily for the Blue Jays they've been building up to it for a while (I picked them for 2nd and playoffs last year) but the Rays have been doing it for even longer. On paper, sure, the Rays should be nowhere near this division but on paper the Rays probably shouldn't even exist, yet they keep competing, year-on-year, in baseball's toughest division. The Jays will make it this year though, through the wildcard, from whence they could go all the way. Yahoo's prediction that the Red Sox remain rooted seems far-fetched given the core of Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia and Big Papi mediate a not-very-good rotation. The Yankees, trying desperately for the budget cap and distracted by A-Rod even when he isn't with the team, should still have enough to be relatively competitive.
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins
In an awful division, James Shields might be all the Royals need to make it out of a crowded mid-table of average franchises, heading in wildly out-of-kilter directions. The Twins look awful, the White Sox surely can't repeat last year and the Indians have made some noticeable improvements over last year but still won't be great enough. The Tigers should walk this for years to come but, hopefully, the Royals/Indians will do enough this year to keep it at least semi-interesting.
AL West: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Astros
No team is too big to fail but the Angels are getting there, and the tantalising prospect of an Angels/Dodgers World Series looms at some point... on paper. They're helped by the Rangers new weaknesses; no Napoli, no Hamilton (now with the Angels), two of last year's stars. Oakland won't repeat based on the fact that many of their wins last year were down to the luck of the walk-off but they do look better than the Rangers and Beane believes they can take it all, so look out for trades late on if they remain competitive. The Mariners are improved and may even run the Rangers tight if they can convince a couple more to join. The Astros are still the worst team in baseball but hey, they do have a nice new logo.
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
If it wasn't for the Marlins player-dumping then this could have been the most interesting division in baseball. As it is, both they and the Mets will just be looking to avoid bottom spot. The demise of The Phillies has been greatly exaggerated. A .500 team, if you describe them as having a top rotation but a middling batting order then you're also describing the Nationals. The former have made a good long-term pick-up (Revere) and a good short-term pick-up (Young). The latter re-signed LaRoche, who's 33 and not getting any better than he was last year. Still, the status quo is changing, the Nationals do seem to have the best pitching and the Braves have the feel good factor of B.J. and Justin. The top three are changeable but I'm with Yahoo: Washington has the edge in what, at the start of the season, looks an interesting fight.
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers
For the second straight off-season, Ryan Braun has been linked to PEDs. Make of that what you will but with him or without him, the Brewers are in decline, whilst the Cubs and Pirates are building from rock bottom in the former's case and not-too-far away from that in the latter's. Last year's lessons learned by me: underestimate the Cardinals at your peril. The Reds should still be too strong for them though, boasting a rotation where a still-decent Bronson Arroyo is now a 5th starter and Chapman hits hitters at 105mph-plus. Yahoo has the Reds as the 4th best in MLB and, whilst that might be too high, World Series odds of 13/1 in some markets are asking to be backed.
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies
Last year's lesson number two: it may be easy to hate the Giants, but don't underestimate them either. Their rotation looks good-to-great, the real Tim Lincecum may be back and the Diamondbacks, the only other real competitors save for LA, should be the 13-games back that they were last year. That leaves the newly Magic Dodgers and their supposedly loaded pitching staff which may still have to rely on Josh Beckett as the third starter. That could work both for and against them depending if Beckett is dealing or swilling beer in the bullpen. Same factors apply to all the old Boston mob (how hungry - for wins - are they?), plus an increasingly injury-prone Matt Kemp. Stay healthy and the league is theirs, plus a Kershaw led kamikaze at the whole thing.
AL East: 1/5 (in the correct finishing position)
AL Central: 1/5
AL West: 2/4
NL East: 0/5
NL Central: 2/6
NL West: 0/5
Total right: 6/30 or 20%
I think we've established that if you're looking for expert opinion, you've come to the wrong place.
Still, something to aim at. And by 'something', I mean: 'try and get one right in each league at least hey, lest you end up looking like a total moron'.
The aim last year was to compare to Olbermann (I matched his previous year's total of 6, albeit he missed off predicting two leagues, so got 30%) but he's a bit of a spotty blogger and doesn't seem to have done his this year yet so instead I'll turn to Yahoo's Jeff Passan and Tim Brown, who jointly came up with a set of detailed pre-Spring rankings which can be read through here but which, simplified, equate to the following standings (team to finish in 1st listed 1st).
AL East: Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Twins
AL West: Angels, Rangers, Athletics, Mariners, Astros
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies
Without further ado...
AL East: Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles
If The Angels', The Dodgers' and, erm, The Marlins' projects taught MLB anything last year, it should have been that you can't build a title-winning team in a year. Luckily for the Blue Jays they've been building up to it for a while (I picked them for 2nd and playoffs last year) but the Rays have been doing it for even longer. On paper, sure, the Rays should be nowhere near this division but on paper the Rays probably shouldn't even exist, yet they keep competing, year-on-year, in baseball's toughest division. The Jays will make it this year though, through the wildcard, from whence they could go all the way. Yahoo's prediction that the Red Sox remain rooted seems far-fetched given the core of Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia and Big Papi mediate a not-very-good rotation. The Yankees, trying desperately for the budget cap and distracted by A-Rod even when he isn't with the team, should still have enough to be relatively competitive.
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins
In an awful division, James Shields might be all the Royals need to make it out of a crowded mid-table of average franchises, heading in wildly out-of-kilter directions. The Twins look awful, the White Sox surely can't repeat last year and the Indians have made some noticeable improvements over last year but still won't be great enough. The Tigers should walk this for years to come but, hopefully, the Royals/Indians will do enough this year to keep it at least semi-interesting.
AL West: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Astros
No team is too big to fail but the Angels are getting there, and the tantalising prospect of an Angels/Dodgers World Series looms at some point... on paper. They're helped by the Rangers new weaknesses; no Napoli, no Hamilton (now with the Angels), two of last year's stars. Oakland won't repeat based on the fact that many of their wins last year were down to the luck of the walk-off but they do look better than the Rangers and Beane believes they can take it all, so look out for trades late on if they remain competitive. The Mariners are improved and may even run the Rangers tight if they can convince a couple more to join. The Astros are still the worst team in baseball but hey, they do have a nice new logo.
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
If it wasn't for the Marlins player-dumping then this could have been the most interesting division in baseball. As it is, both they and the Mets will just be looking to avoid bottom spot. The demise of The Phillies has been greatly exaggerated. A .500 team, if you describe them as having a top rotation but a middling batting order then you're also describing the Nationals. The former have made a good long-term pick-up (Revere) and a good short-term pick-up (Young). The latter re-signed LaRoche, who's 33 and not getting any better than he was last year. Still, the status quo is changing, the Nationals do seem to have the best pitching and the Braves have the feel good factor of B.J. and Justin. The top three are changeable but I'm with Yahoo: Washington has the edge in what, at the start of the season, looks an interesting fight.
NL Central: Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers
For the second straight off-season, Ryan Braun has been linked to PEDs. Make of that what you will but with him or without him, the Brewers are in decline, whilst the Cubs and Pirates are building from rock bottom in the former's case and not-too-far away from that in the latter's. Last year's lessons learned by me: underestimate the Cardinals at your peril. The Reds should still be too strong for them though, boasting a rotation where a still-decent Bronson Arroyo is now a 5th starter and Chapman hits hitters at 105mph-plus. Yahoo has the Reds as the 4th best in MLB and, whilst that might be too high, World Series odds of 13/1 in some markets are asking to be backed.
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies
Last year's lesson number two: it may be easy to hate the Giants, but don't underestimate them either. Their rotation looks good-to-great, the real Tim Lincecum may be back and the Diamondbacks, the only other real competitors save for LA, should be the 13-games back that they were last year. That leaves the newly Magic Dodgers and their supposedly loaded pitching staff which may still have to rely on Josh Beckett as the third starter. That could work both for and against them depending if Beckett is dealing or swilling beer in the bullpen. Same factors apply to all the old Boston mob (how hungry - for wins - are they?), plus an increasingly injury-prone Matt Kemp. Stay healthy and the league is theirs, plus a Kershaw led kamikaze at the whole thing.
Tuesday, 9 October 2012
On First Time Cat Ownership
This is Jenson.
He currently has kitten milk on his chin. Jenson is a male cat of indistinct breed, above average coat shine and below average ability not to fall off things backwards whilst trying to eat his own tail.
We have had Jenson for about four months (I think. He thinks too. He seems as bad at remembering birthdays as I am). This means that my total time as someone who owns a cat has now reached a peak of about four months.
Jenson is having to adapt to someone who has never owned a cat before. For instance, when I shout 'fetch', he looks at me as if I am talking Klingon. Or dog. When I shout 'get him' and throw him out of the door in the direction of a cat who has invaded my garden, he looks at me with something approaching disdain and goes back to sleep. I haven't actually done the last one yet because he's not allowed out but I am not ruling out trying it in the near future. He'll soon learn.
Equally, I am having to adapt to first time cat ownership. One thing I have noticed is that the pain is greater from teething cats than from teething dogs. Here is my arm. Jenson is in the background, trying to decide whether he is a panther or not.
This is what my arm happens to look like this morning but really, it could be a picture of my arm on any given morning since Jenson arrived. It could also be a picture of Jenson on any given morning since he arrived. He contemplates whether he is a panther or not quite a lot. This is a picture of my leg.
Sorry you had to see that, my leg is not pretty. This injury was gained when, in eagerness to extract Jenson's teeth from my arm I pushed him off the sofa and he attempted to stay on the sofa by ice-picking my leg with his built-in ice picks.
It's not all bad. This is Jenson's favourite toy.
This is Jenson trying to decide between my hand, his favourite toy and watching the washing machine spin round.
It is very difficult to describe Jenson's favourite toy as anything other than a rat. This has led to various instances of high-brow humour in which phrases like 'Jenson, get your rat off the bed' and 'Jenson's been playing with his rat for hours' are now commonplace. I am sorry to say that we have not yet worn the Jenson's rat jokes out. Nor has Jenson worn his rat out through too much play.
It is also not bad when you have an hour or two off work and Jenson shows his appreciation that he isn't on his own this morning by coming and sitting on your keyboard. I don't really care that it has taken me much longer than normal to write this, because I have a deep, satisfied purring emanating from my laptop, where normally it only makes strange and unattractive clicking noises.
In a world of clicking laptops we all need a Jenson.
He currently has kitten milk on his chin. Jenson is a male cat of indistinct breed, above average coat shine and below average ability not to fall off things backwards whilst trying to eat his own tail.
We have had Jenson for about four months (I think. He thinks too. He seems as bad at remembering birthdays as I am). This means that my total time as someone who owns a cat has now reached a peak of about four months.
Jenson is having to adapt to someone who has never owned a cat before. For instance, when I shout 'fetch', he looks at me as if I am talking Klingon. Or dog. When I shout 'get him' and throw him out of the door in the direction of a cat who has invaded my garden, he looks at me with something approaching disdain and goes back to sleep. I haven't actually done the last one yet because he's not allowed out but I am not ruling out trying it in the near future. He'll soon learn.
Equally, I am having to adapt to first time cat ownership. One thing I have noticed is that the pain is greater from teething cats than from teething dogs. Here is my arm. Jenson is in the background, trying to decide whether he is a panther or not.
This is what my arm happens to look like this morning but really, it could be a picture of my arm on any given morning since Jenson arrived. It could also be a picture of Jenson on any given morning since he arrived. He contemplates whether he is a panther or not quite a lot. This is a picture of my leg.
Sorry you had to see that, my leg is not pretty. This injury was gained when, in eagerness to extract Jenson's teeth from my arm I pushed him off the sofa and he attempted to stay on the sofa by ice-picking my leg with his built-in ice picks.
It's not all bad. This is Jenson's favourite toy.
This is Jenson trying to decide between my hand, his favourite toy and watching the washing machine spin round.
It is very difficult to describe Jenson's favourite toy as anything other than a rat. This has led to various instances of high-brow humour in which phrases like 'Jenson, get your rat off the bed' and 'Jenson's been playing with his rat for hours' are now commonplace. I am sorry to say that we have not yet worn the Jenson's rat jokes out. Nor has Jenson worn his rat out through too much play.
It is also not bad when you have an hour or two off work and Jenson shows his appreciation that he isn't on his own this morning by coming and sitting on your keyboard. I don't really care that it has taken me much longer than normal to write this, because I have a deep, satisfied purring emanating from my laptop, where normally it only makes strange and unattractive clicking noises.
In a world of clicking laptops we all need a Jenson.
Friday, 17 August 2012
Premier League Predictions 2012-13
This is becoming dangerously close to being a site solely dedicated to predictions of dubious worth for various sporting competitions. Be that as it may, The Premiership starts tomorrow, so here's how it will end. Probably.
1 - Manchester City
It will be tougher for City this year (and they only won it in the final seconds last year!) and, as yet, they haven't strengthened well at all but they should still have enough spine to their team to take the title again. Hart, Kompany, Toure/Silva and Aguero are an incredible core to have and, sans injuries, its difficult to imagine a much stronger team. They didn't need Van Persie and they didn't get him so fans need to stop worrying about who did and focus on the players already there. Another centre-back before the end of the transfer window strengthens their position no end.
2 - Manchester United
Van Persie is 29 and coming off the back of an awful Euros so he might not be the megastar United clearly hope he is. Ferguson has gambled the kitty on a striker when they needed a midfielder but they needed one of those last season and they still managed to finish second, a smidgen away from the title. I don't think they've got enough to overcome City when it matters and the defence can be shaky.
3 - Chelsea
The greatest threat to the title leaving Manchester. Chelsea looked good against City when it was 11 vs 11 in the Community Shield but they have an inexperienced manager and an ageing core. That said, Lampard looked good on England duty mid-week and if Cahill and Luiz can fill in solidly when Terry picks up his inevitable injury then they might have a shot. They've spent bigger than a lot of people realise in the Summer and the pressure will soon be on Di Matteo if the wins aren't forthcoming.
4 - Liverpool
If Liverpool can sign Clint Dempsey and one out of the two of Nuri Sahin and Christian Tello then they look good for a tilt at fourth or higher. Joe Allen and Fabio Borini fill two of the huge gaps in the side and Dempsey/Sahin would fill another couple. Holding on to the established centre-back pairing of Agger/Skrtel is a must though as is starting off with an at least 'OK' record; their first three games at home are City, United and Arsenal. Rodgers buys are the most aspirational out of all their recent managers and his vision the most complete.
5 - Arsenal
The same faults that were there last year are still there, only now they must paper over them without Van Persie and (probably) without Alex Song. Jenkinson will probably start the season in the side, which shows how weak the team can become when injuries hit. Wenger is relying on two strikers with class but no Premiership pedigree and he will be under pressure from the naysayers very early doors, should the side slip to a couple of defeats.
6 - Tottenham
Whether AVB will be given more time here than at Chelsea is debatable, but at least he doesn't have the challenge of dismantling an ageing side of club legends hanging over him. Player power won at The Bridge but here he seems to have much more freedom... for now. A hot Jermaine Defoe is an under-rated property and he will need to be hot if Spurs are to stick with their current squad.
7 - Everton
Moyes works another wonder with a squad that, on paper, should probably be in the bottom eight. Ferguson's natural successor and one of the few managers who has already proven himself up to the task, several times.
8 - Sunderland
Currently, the squad looks threadbare but don't bet against Martin O'Neil. This position should count as over-achievement but how it will be seen at the Stadium of Light is anyone's guess.
9 - Newcastle
Second-season syndrome will hit Castle this season, after the dizzying spells of last year. Defences should be ready for Cisse (as they were for Ba in the second half of last year) and their signings look like 'ones for the future' in the main. Starting off with a lot of injuries too.
10 - QPR
Good investment in the off season and Hughes is starting to learn his on-the-pitch trade much more than at previous jobs. Needs to keep Tarabt quiet and ship out Barton to secure a bunch of happy campers but then this team could start to blossom. The incredibly entertaining Djibril Cisse needs to learn how not to get sent off. Tenth and playing good football would be a brilliant season for Rangers.
11 - Norwich
Over-achieved last season but a good replacement manager and some sharp signings. Hughton pips Lambert's Villa to 11th on the final day.
12 - Aston Villa
Lambert is good but the doom around Villa is near-unliftable and the squad still looks very weak. This would count as a success but probably won't be.
13 - Swansea
Laudrup is such an unknown quantity and last season's squad are being dissembled at an alarming rate. Not near the heady heights of last year's performance but still OK for a side only promoted a year ago. Could do with another striker. If Graham is injured they are in 'it'.
14 - Stoke City
Potentially in trouble. Pulis' transfer dealings look frustrated and the team - whilst not lacking in bite - still feels like it's missing a number of technically gifted players. Their inability to unlock teams away from the den of the Britannia is telling.
15 - West Ham
Big Sam will keep the Hammers up but don't expect it to be pretty or convincing. Diarra is a coup of a signing and will steady the midfield whilst Nolan ploughs forwards in support of Cole and a.n.other. A good start could see them push much higher than this.
16 - Fulham
It's difficult to see this team doing much and Jol's inability to see that Danny Murphy still very much had another Premiership season in him is befuddling. Petric is a good signing and should give them the goals to avoid real trouble. How long will the manager get? An early tip to see the door.
17 - Wigan
They've escaped before. They'll (probably) escape again.
18 - West Brom
Clarke's a first time boss, his signings look the wrong side of risky and the team wasn't that great to begin with. He should get time at this club but that doesn't mean he can save them. A really tough season is in prospect.
19 - Southampton
Adkins plays really good football but it feels like there's a total lack of experience in this team, especially at the top level. Could surprise a couple of clubs (remember when United used to get tanked by them every so often?) but not much more than that. Sadly through the trap door.
20 - Reading
Everyone's favourite for the drop, no? Pogrebnyak is their lone bit of quality and without brilliant service he won't keep them afloat. The defence could really ship some against the bigger teams. Only Chelsea away to worry about on opening day.
1 - Manchester City
It will be tougher for City this year (and they only won it in the final seconds last year!) and, as yet, they haven't strengthened well at all but they should still have enough spine to their team to take the title again. Hart, Kompany, Toure/Silva and Aguero are an incredible core to have and, sans injuries, its difficult to imagine a much stronger team. They didn't need Van Persie and they didn't get him so fans need to stop worrying about who did and focus on the players already there. Another centre-back before the end of the transfer window strengthens their position no end.
2 - Manchester United
Van Persie is 29 and coming off the back of an awful Euros so he might not be the megastar United clearly hope he is. Ferguson has gambled the kitty on a striker when they needed a midfielder but they needed one of those last season and they still managed to finish second, a smidgen away from the title. I don't think they've got enough to overcome City when it matters and the defence can be shaky.
3 - Chelsea
The greatest threat to the title leaving Manchester. Chelsea looked good against City when it was 11 vs 11 in the Community Shield but they have an inexperienced manager and an ageing core. That said, Lampard looked good on England duty mid-week and if Cahill and Luiz can fill in solidly when Terry picks up his inevitable injury then they might have a shot. They've spent bigger than a lot of people realise in the Summer and the pressure will soon be on Di Matteo if the wins aren't forthcoming.
4 - Liverpool
If Liverpool can sign Clint Dempsey and one out of the two of Nuri Sahin and Christian Tello then they look good for a tilt at fourth or higher. Joe Allen and Fabio Borini fill two of the huge gaps in the side and Dempsey/Sahin would fill another couple. Holding on to the established centre-back pairing of Agger/Skrtel is a must though as is starting off with an at least 'OK' record; their first three games at home are City, United and Arsenal. Rodgers buys are the most aspirational out of all their recent managers and his vision the most complete.
5 - Arsenal
The same faults that were there last year are still there, only now they must paper over them without Van Persie and (probably) without Alex Song. Jenkinson will probably start the season in the side, which shows how weak the team can become when injuries hit. Wenger is relying on two strikers with class but no Premiership pedigree and he will be under pressure from the naysayers very early doors, should the side slip to a couple of defeats.
6 - Tottenham
Whether AVB will be given more time here than at Chelsea is debatable, but at least he doesn't have the challenge of dismantling an ageing side of club legends hanging over him. Player power won at The Bridge but here he seems to have much more freedom... for now. A hot Jermaine Defoe is an under-rated property and he will need to be hot if Spurs are to stick with their current squad.
7 - Everton
Moyes works another wonder with a squad that, on paper, should probably be in the bottom eight. Ferguson's natural successor and one of the few managers who has already proven himself up to the task, several times.
8 - Sunderland
Currently, the squad looks threadbare but don't bet against Martin O'Neil. This position should count as over-achievement but how it will be seen at the Stadium of Light is anyone's guess.
9 - Newcastle
Second-season syndrome will hit Castle this season, after the dizzying spells of last year. Defences should be ready for Cisse (as they were for Ba in the second half of last year) and their signings look like 'ones for the future' in the main. Starting off with a lot of injuries too.
10 - QPR
Good investment in the off season and Hughes is starting to learn his on-the-pitch trade much more than at previous jobs. Needs to keep Tarabt quiet and ship out Barton to secure a bunch of happy campers but then this team could start to blossom. The incredibly entertaining Djibril Cisse needs to learn how not to get sent off. Tenth and playing good football would be a brilliant season for Rangers.
11 - Norwich
Over-achieved last season but a good replacement manager and some sharp signings. Hughton pips Lambert's Villa to 11th on the final day.
12 - Aston Villa
Lambert is good but the doom around Villa is near-unliftable and the squad still looks very weak. This would count as a success but probably won't be.
13 - Swansea
Laudrup is such an unknown quantity and last season's squad are being dissembled at an alarming rate. Not near the heady heights of last year's performance but still OK for a side only promoted a year ago. Could do with another striker. If Graham is injured they are in 'it'.
14 - Stoke City
Potentially in trouble. Pulis' transfer dealings look frustrated and the team - whilst not lacking in bite - still feels like it's missing a number of technically gifted players. Their inability to unlock teams away from the den of the Britannia is telling.
15 - West Ham
Big Sam will keep the Hammers up but don't expect it to be pretty or convincing. Diarra is a coup of a signing and will steady the midfield whilst Nolan ploughs forwards in support of Cole and a.n.other. A good start could see them push much higher than this.
16 - Fulham
It's difficult to see this team doing much and Jol's inability to see that Danny Murphy still very much had another Premiership season in him is befuddling. Petric is a good signing and should give them the goals to avoid real trouble. How long will the manager get? An early tip to see the door.
17 - Wigan
They've escaped before. They'll (probably) escape again.
18 - West Brom
Clarke's a first time boss, his signings look the wrong side of risky and the team wasn't that great to begin with. He should get time at this club but that doesn't mean he can save them. A really tough season is in prospect.
19 - Southampton
Adkins plays really good football but it feels like there's a total lack of experience in this team, especially at the top level. Could surprise a couple of clubs (remember when United used to get tanked by them every so often?) but not much more than that. Sadly through the trap door.
20 - Reading
Everyone's favourite for the drop, no? Pogrebnyak is their lone bit of quality and without brilliant service he won't keep them afloat. The defence could really ship some against the bigger teams. Only Chelsea away to worry about on opening day.
Thursday, 1 March 2012
It Would be Nice if More Athletes Thought Like This.
'Most athletes want to go to free agency because that's when you maximize and you really feel what you're worth. But I'm willing to not even worry about going that route. I love this place. This is the place that gave me my chance. I'm a World Series champion in this city. That's stuff that forever that will be remembered. I want to be here. My family loves it. Everybody loves this place.'
- Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies Outfielder, eligible for free agency (baseball's version of a Bosman) at the end of the season.
Your move Phillies.
Thursday, 16 February 2012
2012 MLB Predictions
Keith Olbermann does this on his MLB blog (check here for the start of last year's, although he only seems to have got through four out of the six divisions - you'll have to browse the archives from April 2011 to find all the posts) so I thought I'd have a go too, ahead of this year's start (or even ahead of this year's start of Spring Training!). Olbermann's record last year was six teams in the right positions from twenty guessed at (or 30%), so surely I should be able to beat that.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
The only other division where a .444 average would have seen the Marlins finish bottom last season was the AL East so talk of them having to improve immeasurably to compete is wide of the mark - realistically they need strength in a few key areas and their big moves this off season may well have got them that. Still can't seem 'em besting the Phillies though, even with Philadelphia's ageing offence and need to rely on Domonic Brown or a.n.other unproven quantity as part of the outfield. With improvements in Washington continuing too The Braves are in for a difficult season. The Mets, without Reyes (last year; .337/.384, 101 runs scored) and with nothing coming in, are in dire straights. The Astros had last year's bottom winning percentage at .346 and the target for New York this year must be to avoid that 'honour'. This division is looking as potentially bountiful and pleasantly unpredictable as its AL counterpart. Look for the wildcard to come from here.
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
St. Louis have lost a manager and an Albert since their World Series year last year, and even with those two they only finished second in the division. The Brewers, meanwhile, have lost their own talisman in Fielder and will probably be without Braun for the start of the year. Of the respective replacements for both teams, Ramirez - who looked great for long stretches last year - looks better than the oft-injured Beltran. In any other division, with that power gone from the top two, you'd look to the remaining teams to step up but, really, can anyone? Houston certainly can't and are looking at a nothing year ahead of switching leagues and regrouping (the latter for the fifth or sixth consecutive year) in 2013. Cincinnati keep on getting tipped to 'do something' and never do but have at least picked up some useful pitching help. The Pirates look like relying on the pluck they showed last year again, rather than talent and skill. And the Cubs? Appointing Epstein is a good move but it's a long term one, the pitching still looks very suspect and throwing Rizzo in full time at 1st, especially on last year's evidence, is a dubious gamble. One or two moves during Spring Training could make all the difference but for now, lets say its Cincinnati's breakout year. Again. The key will be their own and Milwaukee's starts; how far ahead can the Reds get before Braun returns?
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Arizona bloomed down the stretch last year whilst San Fran slumped in a very un-champion like manner. LA were good for periods, especially with Kemp firing, and The Rockies started quickly. Has anyone done enough to change the status quo? Probably not. The Dodgers might find themselves able to make some moves late in the day and, on that basis (plus the oft-forgotten Kershaw - a true ace), let's say they'll hold off a promising Rockies team. On a side note: if they do make the moves, LA only have four wins to make up on The Giants from last year. They could, to the surprise of many, end up sneaking into the Wild Card reckoning.
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Ah, this old chestnut. Last year Tampa broke into the NY/Boston love-fest amid a turbulent season for the Red Sox. The problem for The Sox is that this year could be just as bad. The noises coming from Bobby Valentine on team morale sans Francona and the ability of Crawford to be ready for opening day are not sounding fantastic and the pitching still looks - yes, you guessed it - suspect. The Yanks have made good, rather than expensive, moves, which is odd for them and even amid questions about their age, the infield (plus Granderson) still looks amazing. Toronto will go hard to make a dent this year whilst they're still guaranteed Bautista's power and much will depend on how the likes of Brett Lawrie, Travis Snider and Eric Thames kick on from pretty amazing rookie years. Speculators here could tap The Sox to go fourth, something which I can't see the owners allowing to happen - if they're down there at the trade deadline look for big moves, pride will stop them chalking a season up to 'development'. Jays and Rays to trade places instead. The Orioles aren't worth considering on any level.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals
Cleveland surprised here last year but this was still the only division across both leagues to boast just one single team with a better-than-.500 average. That's bad. What it is also means beyond that is that talk of Fielder being constrained by Detroit's pitcher-friendly dimensions are completely redundant; whether he is or he isn't, and whether the Tigers do or don't miss Martinez, no-one is making up the 15-game gap Motor City built up last year. The rest of the standings are ifs, buts, maybes and won'ts. Cleveland won't repeat last year's success. Kansas are feeling positive but their success is based on if their prospects start to perform. There's no way Minnesota, with a set of healthy stars, Willingham and Marquis, should finish bottom again, but stranger things have happened. The White Sox need to learn to live without Ozzie and fast. Anyone's guess. I'll back a Twins turnaround, a Cleveland stasis and the other two making up the numbers. A pitching addition could see the Twins run down the Indians but with the latter adding Ubaldo, it's easier to back them to hold on at this point.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
Seattle have been linked with everyone and got no-one and short of the outstanding King Felix, their rotation looks amongst the poorest in the league. The decline of Ichiro did not show any sign of stopping either. Their one bright point is that the A's seem to be trying their hardest to beat them into last. Everyone; fans, commentators, the team... me, seems confused with exactly what their trade plans are. The surprise addition of Cespedes though means that their outfield is, all of sudden, looking at least passably strong. The Angels have made their move for The Rangers top spot and with the addition of Pujols to a rotation boasting Weaver, Wilson and Haren and whilst they might not be quite as strong as some are saying (a couple of bookies have them at second favourite, behind the Phillies, to take the whole thing) they might just edge a strongly fought contest.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets
The only other division where a .444 average would have seen the Marlins finish bottom last season was the AL East so talk of them having to improve immeasurably to compete is wide of the mark - realistically they need strength in a few key areas and their big moves this off season may well have got them that. Still can't seem 'em besting the Phillies though, even with Philadelphia's ageing offence and need to rely on Domonic Brown or a.n.other unproven quantity as part of the outfield. With improvements in Washington continuing too The Braves are in for a difficult season. The Mets, without Reyes (last year; .337/.384, 101 runs scored) and with nothing coming in, are in dire straights. The Astros had last year's bottom winning percentage at .346 and the target for New York this year must be to avoid that 'honour'. This division is looking as potentially bountiful and pleasantly unpredictable as its AL counterpart. Look for the wildcard to come from here.
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros
St. Louis have lost a manager and an Albert since their World Series year last year, and even with those two they only finished second in the division. The Brewers, meanwhile, have lost their own talisman in Fielder and will probably be without Braun for the start of the year. Of the respective replacements for both teams, Ramirez - who looked great for long stretches last year - looks better than the oft-injured Beltran. In any other division, with that power gone from the top two, you'd look to the remaining teams to step up but, really, can anyone? Houston certainly can't and are looking at a nothing year ahead of switching leagues and regrouping (the latter for the fifth or sixth consecutive year) in 2013. Cincinnati keep on getting tipped to 'do something' and never do but have at least picked up some useful pitching help. The Pirates look like relying on the pluck they showed last year again, rather than talent and skill. And the Cubs? Appointing Epstein is a good move but it's a long term one, the pitching still looks very suspect and throwing Rizzo in full time at 1st, especially on last year's evidence, is a dubious gamble. One or two moves during Spring Training could make all the difference but for now, lets say its Cincinnati's breakout year. Again. The key will be their own and Milwaukee's starts; how far ahead can the Reds get before Braun returns?
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
Arizona bloomed down the stretch last year whilst San Fran slumped in a very un-champion like manner. LA were good for periods, especially with Kemp firing, and The Rockies started quickly. Has anyone done enough to change the status quo? Probably not. The Dodgers might find themselves able to make some moves late in the day and, on that basis (plus the oft-forgotten Kershaw - a true ace), let's say they'll hold off a promising Rockies team. On a side note: if they do make the moves, LA only have four wins to make up on The Giants from last year. They could, to the surprise of many, end up sneaking into the Wild Card reckoning.
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
Ah, this old chestnut. Last year Tampa broke into the NY/Boston love-fest amid a turbulent season for the Red Sox. The problem for The Sox is that this year could be just as bad. The noises coming from Bobby Valentine on team morale sans Francona and the ability of Crawford to be ready for opening day are not sounding fantastic and the pitching still looks - yes, you guessed it - suspect. The Yanks have made good, rather than expensive, moves, which is odd for them and even amid questions about their age, the infield (plus Granderson) still looks amazing. Toronto will go hard to make a dent this year whilst they're still guaranteed Bautista's power and much will depend on how the likes of Brett Lawrie, Travis Snider and Eric Thames kick on from pretty amazing rookie years. Speculators here could tap The Sox to go fourth, something which I can't see the owners allowing to happen - if they're down there at the trade deadline look for big moves, pride will stop them chalking a season up to 'development'. Jays and Rays to trade places instead. The Orioles aren't worth considering on any level.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals
Cleveland surprised here last year but this was still the only division across both leagues to boast just one single team with a better-than-.500 average. That's bad. What it is also means beyond that is that talk of Fielder being constrained by Detroit's pitcher-friendly dimensions are completely redundant; whether he is or he isn't, and whether the Tigers do or don't miss Martinez, no-one is making up the 15-game gap Motor City built up last year. The rest of the standings are ifs, buts, maybes and won'ts. Cleveland won't repeat last year's success. Kansas are feeling positive but their success is based on if their prospects start to perform. There's no way Minnesota, with a set of healthy stars, Willingham and Marquis, should finish bottom again, but stranger things have happened. The White Sox need to learn to live without Ozzie and fast. Anyone's guess. I'll back a Twins turnaround, a Cleveland stasis and the other two making up the numbers. A pitching addition could see the Twins run down the Indians but with the latter adding Ubaldo, it's easier to back them to hold on at this point.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
Seattle have been linked with everyone and got no-one and short of the outstanding King Felix, their rotation looks amongst the poorest in the league. The decline of Ichiro did not show any sign of stopping either. Their one bright point is that the A's seem to be trying their hardest to beat them into last. Everyone; fans, commentators, the team... me, seems confused with exactly what their trade plans are. The surprise addition of Cespedes though means that their outfield is, all of sudden, looking at least passably strong. The Angels have made their move for The Rangers top spot and with the addition of Pujols to a rotation boasting Weaver, Wilson and Haren and whilst they might not be quite as strong as some are saying (a couple of bookies have them at second favourite, behind the Phillies, to take the whole thing) they might just edge a strongly fought contest.
Friday, 3 February 2012
Josh Hamilton and the Media's Treatment of Addiction
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| Photo from 10 Step Baseball Power |
'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday', the sub-header said on a Yahoo article from early on Friday. 'So what?', the passing reader might think, to a sub header that looks as revelatory as 'Bird Flew Tuesday' or 'Bonds Cheated Throughout Career'.
The truth of the line's power is in its insinuation and backstory.
Josh Hamilton, outfielder for the Texas Rangers, left the sport of baseball all together in 2003, having previously been declared one of its hottest prospects. Hamilton, for years prior and through large parts of '03-'05, when he remained out of the sport, was addicted, both to various drugs and to alcohol. He tells stories of spending a $4million signing bonus almost solely in the pursuit of mind-altering substances, of waking up in a ditch having passed out on crack and of having to borrow $2,000 from his father-in-law when a cheque to his drug dealer bounced.
He told all of this in a now-fairly-famous interview he gave to Sports Illustrated in 2008.
Since then, and in the years from 2005 when he was back in baseball, Hamilton has worked hard to clean up his act. He moved to the Rangers, who employed a sort of 'minder' to keep track of him. He gave the frank interview to SI and talked openly about how hard it was to kick addiction. He publicly admitted his relapses, asked forgiveness and sought the help he needed to overcome them.
In 2010 he was AL MVP. Last year he batted .298 with 25 home runs and 94 RBIs, despite missing a chunk of the season with a shoulder injury. The Rangers made the World Series for the second time in two years.
It now seems that, because 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday', the media have forgotten all of that.
More than the stats, the sad thing about that fact is they have forgotten how hard Hamilton has worked to literally pull himself out of a ditch. They have forgotten the constant self-effacement, the recognition that he had a problem which needed to be fixed, the dedication to his mentor-reliant regime.
They have also forgotten that relapses are the symptoms of a disease that will be ever-present. Hamilton will always, for the rest of his life, be battling alcohol and drugs. A relapse is - like a sneeze during the flu - a symptom of his disease. Like other relapses he has suffered, it is reasonable to expect that Hamilton will admit to his mistake, continue to seek and pay for the help he has had over the last few years and move on.
It is reasonable to expect this... except if you are the media.
In Jeff Passan's article for Yahoo, the writer invokes Hamilton's new daughter, questions whether he will now get the long contract he wants from the Rangers, trawls up the bawdy details of his previous relapses and then, at the end, has the temerity to suggest that he understands Hamilton's battle, just before he signs off by proclaiming his actions those of 'just another guy who doesn't care'.
All of that written without any details of what or why 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday'. All of that written without a care or thought for how hard Josh Hamilton has worked to be a 'guy who does care' over the last few years. All of that written, sadly, inevitably, with the aim of getting clicks on a sensationalist story.
A final thought for The Texas Rangers: what message do you send out to Josh Hamilton if you don't give him his extended contract? What message are you sending out to others trying to recover from diseases like this?
I hope, although I accept it is unlikely, that what 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday' turns out to have been water, Fanta or iced tea. I hope that if it is not, he continues to be one of Major League Baseball's most exciting players. I hope he apologises, to his fans, family, team and those who see him as someone to look up to.
I hope that if one or all of the above turn out to be true, that in that climate of opinion, Jeff Passan attempts to write an article praising him or his abilities because, if he does, I'll be the first person to tell him what 'Jeff Passan Wrote Friday'.
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