2012 MLB Predictions

Keith Olbermann does this on his MLB blog (check here for the start of last year's, although he only seems to have got through four out of the six divisions - you'll have to browse the archives from April 2011 to find all the posts) so I thought I'd have a go too, ahead of this year's start (or even ahead of this year's start of Spring Training!). Olbermann's record last year was six teams in the right positions from twenty guessed at (or 30%), so surely I should be able to beat that.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

The only other division where a .444 average would have seen the Marlins finish bottom last season was the AL East so talk of them having to improve immeasurably to compete is wide of the mark - realistically they need strength in a few key areas and their big moves this off season may well have got them that. Still can't seem 'em besting the Phillies though, even with Philadelphia's ageing offence and need to rely on Domonic Brown or a.n.other unproven quantity as part of the outfield. With improvements in Washington continuing too The Braves are in for a difficult season. The Mets, without Reyes (last year; .337/.384, 101 runs scored) and with nothing coming in, are in dire straights. The Astros had last year's bottom winning percentage at .346 and the target for New York this year must be to avoid that 'honour'. This division is looking as potentially bountiful and pleasantly unpredictable as its AL counterpart. Look for the wildcard to come from here.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

St. Louis have lost a manager and an Albert since their World Series year last year, and even with those two they only finished second in the division. The Brewers, meanwhile, have lost their own talisman in Fielder and will probably be without Braun for the start of the year. Of the respective replacements for both teams, Ramirez - who looked great for long stretches last year - looks better than the oft-injured Beltran. In any other division, with that power gone from the top two, you'd look to the remaining teams to step up but, really, can anyone? Houston certainly can't and are looking at a nothing year ahead of switching leagues and regrouping (the latter for the fifth or sixth consecutive year) in 2013. Cincinnati keep on getting tipped to 'do something' and never do but have at least picked up some useful pitching help. The Pirates look like relying on the pluck they showed last year again, rather than talent and skill. And the Cubs? Appointing Epstein is a good move but it's a long term one, the pitching still looks very suspect and throwing Rizzo in full time at 1st, especially on last year's evidence, is a dubious gamble. One or two moves during Spring Training could make all the difference but for now, lets say its Cincinnati's breakout year. Again. The key will be their own and Milwaukee's starts; how far ahead can the Reds get before Braun returns?

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Arizona bloomed down the stretch last year whilst San Fran slumped in a very un-champion like manner. LA were good for periods, especially with Kemp firing, and The Rockies started quickly. Has anyone done enough to change the status quo? Probably not. The Dodgers might find themselves able to make some moves late in the day and, on that basis (plus the oft-forgotten Kershaw - a true ace), let's say they'll hold off a promising Rockies team. On a side note: if they do make the moves, LA only have four wins to make up on The Giants from last year. They could, to the surprise of many, end up sneaking into the Wild Card reckoning.

AL East

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Ah, this old chestnut. Last year Tampa broke into the NY/Boston love-fest amid a turbulent season for the Red Sox. The problem for The Sox is that this year could be just as bad. The noises coming from Bobby Valentine on team morale sans Francona and the ability of Crawford to be ready for opening day are not sounding fantastic and the pitching still looks - yes, you guessed it - suspect. The Yanks have made good, rather than expensive, moves, which is odd for them and even amid questions about their age, the infield (plus Granderson) still looks amazing. Toronto will go hard to make a dent this year whilst they're still guaranteed Bautista's power and much will depend on how the likes of Brett Lawrie, Travis Snider and Eric Thames kick on from pretty amazing rookie years. Speculators here could tap The Sox to go fourth, something which I can't see the owners allowing to happen - if they're down there at the trade deadline look for big moves, pride will stop them chalking a season up to 'development'. Jays and Rays to trade places instead. The Orioles aren't worth considering on any level.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

Cleveland surprised here last year but this was still the only division across both leagues to boast just one single team with a better-than-.500 average. That's bad. What it is also means beyond that is that talk of Fielder being constrained by Detroit's pitcher-friendly dimensions are completely redundant; whether he is or he isn't, and whether the Tigers do or don't miss Martinez, no-one is making up the 15-game gap Motor City built up last year. The rest of the standings are ifs, buts, maybes and won'ts. Cleveland won't repeat last year's success. Kansas are feeling positive but their success is based on if their prospects start to perform. There's no way Minnesota, with a set of healthy stars, Willingham and Marquis, should finish bottom again, but stranger things have happened. The White Sox need to learn to live without Ozzie and fast. Anyone's guess. I'll back a Twins turnaround, a Cleveland stasis and the other two making up the numbers. A pitching addition could see the Twins run down the Indians but with the latter adding Ubaldo, it's easier to back them to hold on at this point.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Seattle have been linked with everyone and got no-one and short of the outstanding King Felix, their rotation looks amongst the poorest in the league. The decline of Ichiro did not show any sign of stopping either. Their one bright point is that the A's seem to be trying their hardest to beat them into last. Everyone; fans, commentators, the team... me, seems confused with exactly what their trade plans are. The surprise addition of Cespedes though means that their outfield is, all of sudden, looking at least passably strong. The Angels have made their move for The Rangers top spot and with the addition of Pujols to a rotation boasting Weaver, Wilson and Haren and whilst they might not be quite as strong as some are saying (a couple of bookies have them at second favourite, behind the Phillies, to take the whole thing) they might just edge a strongly fought contest.

Josh Hamilton and the Media's Treatment of Addiction

Photo from 10 Step Baseball Power

'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday', the sub-header said on a Yahoo article from early on Friday. 'So what?', the passing reader might think, to a sub header that looks as revelatory as 'Bird Flew Tuesday' or 'Bonds Cheated Throughout Career'.

The truth of the line's power is in its insinuation and backstory.

Josh Hamilton, outfielder for the Texas Rangers, left the sport of baseball all together in 2003, having previously been declared one of its hottest prospects. Hamilton, for years prior and through large parts of '03-'05, when he remained out of the sport, was addicted, both to various drugs and to alcohol. He tells stories of spending a $4million signing bonus almost solely in the pursuit of mind-altering substances, of waking up in a ditch having passed out on crack and of having to borrow $2,000 from his father-in-law when a cheque to his drug dealer bounced.

He told all of this in a now-fairly-famous interview he gave to Sports Illustrated in 2008.

Since then, and in the years from 2005 when he was back in baseball, Hamilton has worked hard to clean up his act. He moved to the Rangers, who employed a sort of 'minder' to keep track of him. He gave the frank interview to SI and talked openly about how hard it was to kick addiction. He publicly admitted his relapses, asked forgiveness and sought the help he needed to overcome them.

In 2010 he was AL MVP. Last year he batted .298 with 25 home runs and 94 RBIs, despite missing a chunk of the season with a shoulder injury. The Rangers made the World Series for the second time in two years.

It now seems that, because 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday', the media have forgotten all of that.

More than the stats, the sad thing about that fact is they have forgotten how hard Hamilton has worked to literally pull himself out of a ditch. They have forgotten the constant self-effacement, the recognition that he had a problem which needed to be fixed, the dedication to his mentor-reliant regime.

They have also forgotten that relapses are the symptoms of a disease that will be ever-present. Hamilton will always, for the rest of his life, be battling alcohol and drugs. A relapse is - like a sneeze during the flu - a symptom of his disease. Like other relapses he has suffered, it is reasonable to expect that Hamilton will admit to his mistake, continue to seek and pay for the help he has had over the last few years and move on.

It is reasonable to expect this... except if you are the media.

In Jeff Passan's article for Yahoo, the writer invokes Hamilton's new daughter, questions whether he will now get the long contract he wants from the Rangers, trawls up the bawdy details of his previous relapses and then, at the end, has the temerity to suggest that he understands Hamilton's battle, just before he signs off by proclaiming his actions those of 'just another guy who doesn't care'.

All of that written without any details of what or why 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday'. All of that written without a care or thought for how hard Josh Hamilton has worked to be a 'guy who does care' over the last few years. All of that written, sadly, inevitably, with the aim of getting clicks on a sensationalist story.

A final thought for The Texas Rangers: what message do you send out to Josh Hamilton if you don't give him his extended contract? What message are you sending out to others trying to recover from diseases like this?

I hope, although I accept it is unlikely, that what 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday' turns out to have been water, Fanta or iced tea. I hope that if it is not, he continues to be one of Major League Baseball's most exciting players. I hope he apologises, to his fans, family, team and those who see him as someone to look up to.

I hope that if one or all of the above turn out to be true, that in that climate of opinion, Jeff Passan attempts to write an article praising him or his abilities because, if he does, I'll be the first person to tell him what 'Jeff Passan Wrote Friday'.