2013 teams picked in the correct position:
AL East: 0/5
AL Central: 1/5
AL West: 2/5
NL East: 1/5
NL Central: 0/5
NL West: 1/5
A 'grand' total of 5/30, which is even worse than 2012's effort of 6/30, itself hardly guaranteeing me a place alongside Nostradamus.
How badly will I get it wrong this year? Time to find out...
AL East: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays
This division is now so much of a muchness that it wouldn't be an absolute shock if the above order was to be reversed come the final day of the season. OK... maybe not the Jays at the top.
The Orioles have made a late bid to improve with Ubaldo and Cruz but I still don't see them besting the other three and the main reason the bottom two are at the bottom is pitching: MLB's own player predictions lists each team's closer as their best pitcher, which is never a good thing. There's questions over every single one of each team's rotation, including their Aces: Ubaldo and Dickey weren't exactly lights out last year. If Baltimore can sort their staff out (and Bud Norris can figure out how to get left handers out) then maybe they have a chance: a middle order of Jones, Davis, Cruz and Machado says as much.
Tampa separate themselves from the bottom two, and arguably the Sox in several ways but mainly because their ace is a genuine, sub-3.00 ERA, leader. Price might not be there for eternity but while he is, the Rays will try to win. You can expect Myers to improve further and whilst their DH/1B combo of Joyce and Loney doesn't set pulses racing, it should provide enough backup to Longoria and Myers to keep them in contention.
Last year there were 12 wins between the Red Sox and the Yankees but Ellsbury has switched allegiance and the Yanks have gained a beast of a third pitcher in Tanaka. I also like the Yankees depth and where Middlebrooks, Bradley and Bogaerts used to look like good backups or occasionals in Boston, they're now going to have to turn it on every day. New York also gets to take a year off from the A-Rod circus and that could be the big boost they needed. It'll be tight at the top, but I like the Yankees again, especially their top three starters and any problem for Pedroia, Ortiz or Napoli leaves Boston looking wanting.
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins
There's no way the Tigers won't take this division again. Even having traded Prince's home runs, their lineup looks incredible and their top three pitchers (yes, I'm including Sanchez alongside Verlander and Scherzer, he gets forgotten too easily and he can be fanatastic) are all All Star quality. They only won this division by a game last year. It should have been much more.
With Abreu and a rebuilding process that looks like it's coming along nicely, you can now officially put down the White Sox as dark horses, rather than make-weights. They've got the best pitcher in the division who isn't employed by Detroit (Sale) and with a bit of luck and production from their new first baseman, Avisail and Eaton, it doesn't take a great leap of faith to see them competing.
I like the Indians but again, this division feels like it comes down to pitching. Nobody, save Detroit, has a rotation to write home about but Cleveland, in particular, have a top two who aren't far away from 4.00+ ERAs. The Royals have this perpetually 'young and promising' team which, in the shape of Hosmer, actually started to properly deliver last year. If you look at the full Kansas lineup, it actually looks pretty strong from top to bottom: a lower half of Moustakas, Escobar and Cain is no terrible thing.
The middle three could really be anywhere. I'd say the top and bottom are set. The Twins look awful and have done for a few years now. As a Phillies fan, the Revere/Worley trade now looks even better for us than it did when it was struck.
AL West: Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Mariners, Houston
I love the A's, but I do find the argument that they're a superstar short of a Championship pretty convincing, and I wonder if, behind Darvish and a bona fide first baseman, this couldn't be Texas' year to take the whole thing.
That said, given Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando's injury history, you wonder if Texas haven't considered adding one more starter. They were reported to be in the Ervin Santana mix but let him become a Brave and it's starting to look like there's not a great deal more out there.
The Mariners big Cano-shaped batting improvement has been somewhat overshadowed in early Spring by the worries around Iwakuma and Walker. With those two, their rotation is only bested by the A's in this division but without them, you're back to relying on Felix far too much. Even given Cano, the Mariners' lineup just doesn't scream 'division winners' at you, or even 'this is good enough to beat the Angels' who, lets not forget, have a Trout.
There's been some nice, encouraging, words said about the Astros this year, but I just don't see it: their rotation is an anonymous collection of 4.00+ ERA pitchers and though Jose Altuve is a good player, he should not be any team's number one ranked batter.
The battles here are Rangers v Athletics and Angels v Mariners.
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies
Because of our history and Cliff Lee, it's tempting to stick the Phillies in the middle of this division again, or perhaps in 4th, the one game behind the Mets they found themselves last year. There's a problem though: I just don't see any evidence to support predicting that position.
The internal fractions last year were blamed on Manuel's management style and Papelbon being an arsehole. It's already clear with the Rollins saga that those elements, though certainly factors, were not the whole story. The lineup features only smatterings of hope: Revere has been OK this Spring, there's no reason Brown can't repeat on last year. Elsewhere there's only questions with negative answers: Utley and Howard are not their old selves, neither is Ruiz (at least with a bat). The prospects don't look much better. Ruf already has a problem, Asche does not look good enough to start at third but will. The backups (Mayberry, Galvis, Frandsen... Abreu!) are not great. I can very easily see the scenario where we finish last and I don't think it's any longer a long shot to say it's possible.
For that to happen though, the Marlins need to step up much further. I am increasingly swayed towards the fact that they can. Fernandez is obviously great and if they can just build a little bit more and hold a little bit of positivity, I can see them jumping the Mets, whose additions do not look startling (Colon? No.) and whose existing crop is not doing David Wright any favours (Daniel Murphy starts the season as their 3rd 'best' batter).
Like last year, the top is a competition between the Braves and the Nationals. Clearly Atlanta is desperate to win: the pre-season additions, almost immediately after losing players to injury smack of it. Because of that, I just think the Nationals and their settled clubhouse have the edge. Harper has NL MVP quality, the top two in the rotation could both bother the 20-win bracket.
NL Central: Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs
The middle three of this division make for one of the most interesting battles in baseball at the moment. The Pirates have a solid staff and will want to build on last year. The Brewers have Braun back and, if Spring is anything to go by, back at some level of excellent. The Reds batting lineup is close to devastating, particularly in that ballpark.
The top and the bottom are more set; the Cardinals are many people's choice to win the whole thing and, on recent season's evidence, you can understand why. A lot of pundits think the Cubs are a year or two from a lineup full of players who are now A+ prospects. I'm sceptical. They are awful currently and prospects have a habit of not being that once they get seriously tested (just ask Darwin Barney and Starlin Castro). Relying solely on yet-to-arrive prospects (their trades have been poor, and suggest they're waiting for big things from the internal crop) is, at best, risky; at worst, dodgy.
Which leaves a decision to be made on how to rank the mid-table. I really like the Brewers' pitching. All of a sudden they've ended up with a rotation which runs from Estrada to Garza to Lohse to Gallardo (in some order) and that's good in any language. I can see them troubling the Reds this year and I can certainly see them besting the Pirates, who I don't think have improved their batting anywhere near enough to keep themselves on the ladder.
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres
Ignore the top three for a second: the bottom two here are set. The Padres and Rockies are a distance from their divisional rivals, even if you admit that the Rockies best three batters are significant talents. That though is undermined by their pitching, and you can ditto that for San Diego, who tried to make a rotation better with Josh Johnson, which is the definition of a futile effort.
So then we're back to the top and the all-of-a-sudden injury-prone Diamondbacks, who I like but can see getting upset by the Giants. It was pitching that won the Giants their Championships and if the real Lincecum stands up and is supported by the real Morse then I can really see them doing something. A big plus on their side: Buster Posey, a bona fide superstar.
The Dodgers, despite their perceived lack of depth (though not in an outfield which has the luxury of Van Slyke, who I like a lot, as a reserve) should surely have this division wrapped up though. Some astute additions (Dan Haren) have bolstered the lower ends of an already strong lineup. Puig does concern me though. He's one of the most exciting talents around but his Opening Day whiff (just this morning, as I write this) and his Spring performance hint that he's not happy with this lead-off experiment. And if Puig isn't happy, I have a feeling he's not just going to sit their and let no-one know about it.
