2015 MLB Predictions

Fifteen out of Thirty! 15/30!

2014 will truly be remembered as a magical year.

Sure, it might still only be 50% correct and it wouldn't pass most basic exams, but a .500 batting average will do very nicely, thank you very much and it certainly beats the previous 'high' line of 6/30 / .200 on 2012's season.

Here's the 'how I did last year' breakdown, with correct picks in bold.

AL East: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays
AL Central: Tigers, Royals, Indians, White Sox, Twins
AL West: Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Mariners, Astros
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs
NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres

Yes, you read that right: that's every team correct in the AL Central! Three out of five teams in each one of the NL Divisions! No less than four correct division winners! Truly an amazing time to be alive.

Let's blame the AL East on the fact that the AL East is notoriously unpredictable and the Yankees are there, so everyone hates it any way.

For an encore, I can offer this limited, but none-the-less considered wisdom for 2015. Advice: do not rely on it if you are considering staking your house against the house.

As a comparison I'm taking the rankings of ESPN's excellent David Schoenfield, which you can read here, here, here, here and here and, of course, MLB's own player previews. Last season's standings are here.

AL East: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees, Rays

Not one team right last year and, with an ever-changing cast of players, is it any wonder? Here goes...

I agree that the Yanks look bad. Their pitching seems ready made for injuries. Their candidate for #faceofMLB was Brett Gardner. Now, I like Gardner, but he's not a superstar and if the Yankees think he is then they're in more trouble than they know.

I like the Red Sox trades and rotation and, more than that, I like what they have at the fringes. I'm not sure Nava will be sixth choice outfielder, as per the player previews, but if he is that's a very nice sixth outfielder to have. Similar can be said about relief pickups like Alexi Ogando, although the same on injuries as above applies there.

People have said some nice things about the Rays recently, but it feels partially in sympathy. I like their rotation, but without a doubt they need hitting and look thinner there than arguably any team in the league. Loney at first continues to be endemic of what they're missing. They've lost too much in trades this offseason to maintain last year's fourth.

All of which leaves the Orioles and the Blue Jays, both of whom I struggle with. The Jays look strong (Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion - hope you like catching home run balls Toronto!) but the last time this happened I backed them and they choked. I continue to think the Orioles look average on paper but 96 wins last year says otherwise and you have to wonder where the drop off comes from.

I'm going for the Jays again and then the Red Sox' improvements to get them to the playoffs. Out of this division though, as an improvement on last year, I'd be delighted to walk away with the bottom two correct.

AL Central: Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Twins

A really, really interesting division. Perhaps more than any other battle, I can't wait to see if the Indians (or even someone else...) can break the Tigers' dominance. Detroit look shakier than ever all of a sudden, with questions over Miggy, V-Mart and Verlander.

Tempting though it is to say that they will finally topple, for now, I'm going to say the Tigers maintain their position, with the Indians jumping the Royals, who have lost a lot since their World Series trip.

In fact... maybe the White Sox jump the Royals too. They've made improvements to the starting rotation, hitting and depth. I like them, I like their moves and I can't say that for the Royals. I certainly don't see Chicago way down as the 23rd best team in the league, which is where Schoenfield puts them. At the very least, they compete for the 2-3-4 positions and it finishes fairly closely.

A close-to-certainty: the Twins remain rooted. I'll stick my neck out on Chicago and a big backwards Royals step.

AL West: Mariners, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Astros

Houston didn't finish bottom! My pick for the top did! Funny old game this.

Having picked them last year, I now don't understand what Texas are doing. The trade for Gallardo suggests they think they can compete with the current roster, evidence from last year says otherwise. When you look at the lineup it is starting to feel like a selection of 'names' who are going backwards; Beltre, Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo. If they stay fit, maybe they challenge and heroically fail. If everyone goes the same way as Jurickson Profar already has then this could be a very expensive last-placed disaster.

Meanwhile, in Oakland, who knows where Billy Beane thinks the Athletics are? Like the Cardinals and the Orioles: underestimate them at your peril. This year though, I really can't make the argument for it. The pitching looks really good (Gray has Cy Young potential) but Kazmir could easily be far worse and people like Billy Butler are big candidates to not fill sizeable trade gaps. Do they stay ahead of Houston and the Rangers? Possibly, on pitching alone.

At the top, it does feel like it's the Mariners or the Angels. Increasingly, the Mariners are convincing me. It also feels as though maybe they have a trade left in them, which the current team more than merits. Does Cruz get them over the line? He did it for the Orioles, so why not?

NL East: Nationals, Marlins, Mets, Braves, Phillies

I'm taking as a starter here that the top and bottom are set. The Nationals are World Series favourites, with good reason (that rotation is great) and my team, the Phillies, continue to be awfully managed by Amaro and admit themselves they are at least two years off competing. If they don't get decent returns for Hamels and Lee, at least, then they are going to be further off than that.

The middle three could be in any order. Yes, Atlanta are going backwards after a brief spurt of activity, but the Marlins and Mets have off-setting flaws; the former is struggling for pitching and the latter can't bat. Last year I wrote about how Daniel Murphy predicting as 3rd 'best' batter was indicative of the Mets problems. This year he predicts as first. That is a problem. The Marlins without Fernandez have a larger-than-last-year Latos as their opening day starter. That too is a problem.

I'm taking the Marlins for several reasons. Firstly, the Stanton contract shows evidence they want to win, so if they're there or there abouts I can see trades. I don't see that from the Mets and the Braves are stating they won't do that. The Marlins also have three young pitchers who could improve, behind innings-eater, mid-rotation Dan Haren, whilst I don't see a great deal of growth out of the Mets hitters. The Marlins can plug their flaws but the Mets will struggle to hide theirs.

Make an argument for that middle three as you see fit though and I won't complain: Atlanta still have a good rotation and Matt Harvey could win a Cy Young behind a Mets team that make the playoffs.

NL Central: Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Brewers

This is a deceptively difficult division this year. The Cub's plan is starting to form (the Lester deal says the team, at least, believe that). The Reds are probably in decline, but how far? The Pirates will challenge again but can they take The Cards? No one liked the Brewers last year and yet they led the division for ages.

Schoenfield goes for the Reds in dead last, which I just don't see. I'm not keen on the Brewers hitting or pitching, whilst the Reds still have Votto, Bruce, Frazier and Cueto - that's a set of stars that could, on their day, challenge, let alone struggle to finish fourth. I know you could trot out a good 'Top 3' for the Brewers, and a couple of good starting pitchers, but I can't see them matching up and I see the pitching in particular as a good bet for a decline.

Meanwhile, if you take the above two and the Cubs as the bottom three in some order, then you have to accept that the Cubs could easily outrank the two above, or finish at the heap of the pile. There are too many unknowns in that team to back them further than third, which itself is a risk; too many near-to rookies who may or may not perform, too many on-the-verge players who could be anonymous or compete for team MVP (step forwards Dexter Fowler).

At the top, I'll take the Cardinals to fend off the Pirates again. I like the addition of Heyward, they've hardly lost anything important and when you look down the lineup there's just so much consistency, even if you anticipate decline from, say, Peralta. If Wainwright goes down, with this team, surely they go for someone like Hamels or Lee and Bob is indeed your mother's brother. A really difficult division though. Take a lucky dip and your prediction has a shot. I love watching the NL Central.

NL West: Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks

If you look at what each team has done then the only candidate for positive movement in this division is surely the Padres. So, the question becomes, do they have enough to beat the Giants? I'd like to think yes, I hope it makes for a competitive division and an interesting NL wildcard race, but it is a stretch.

Look at the infields. The Padres need help. Perhaps one of their SPs and/or Cameron Maybin, who no longer fits in that outfield, gets to be a useful trade piece? If they're serious then I think it needs to happen. Without that sort of help then maybe they beat last year's 77-85, maybe they even beat Schoenfield's predicted 80-82 and make parity, but I can't see them beating the Giants of last year's 88-74, nor whatever this year's team make (possibly/probably a little less than that). Close, but the Padres are a year and a couple of trades away. Like the set up for 2016 though, if ownership holds its nerve.

The Dodgers are surely a lock. You know you're good when you make trades you didn't really need to, which still make the team better. Grandal in for Ellis most days as catcher is such a trade. There are teams who would kill for an on-his-day average+ catcher like Ellis (step forward Phillies). Hollywood just replaced him with a better one. The guy hit .270 with 13 home runs and a .373 OBP two years ago for God's sake!

At the bottom, the MLB player predictions put Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Aaron Hill and completely unknown Cuban Yasmany Tomas ahead of Mark Trumbo for the Diamondbacks. Ouch. The hitting looks suspect and the rotation doesn't look much better. It actually may be a little worse.

I'll take the Rockies over the Diamondbacks then, as Schoenfield does. I actually think the Rockies hitting is starting to look good (if Tulowitzki and Gonzalez turn up), but any rotation reliant on Kyle Kendrick in the middle is going to hold you back. He seems a great guy but he's the sort of player where nobody would be surprised if he posted something like 5-15 and that is a problem. That said, if the Padres get stage fright, I can see an argument for the Rockies challenging third. I don't see that argument for the Diamondbacks.