2012 MLB Predictions

Keith Olbermann does this on his MLB blog (check here for the start of last year's, although he only seems to have got through four out of the six divisions - you'll have to browse the archives from April 2011 to find all the posts) so I thought I'd have a go too, ahead of this year's start (or even ahead of this year's start of Spring Training!). Olbermann's record last year was six teams in the right positions from twenty guessed at (or 30%), so surely I should be able to beat that.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

The only other division where a .444 average would have seen the Marlins finish bottom last season was the AL East so talk of them having to improve immeasurably to compete is wide of the mark - realistically they need strength in a few key areas and their big moves this off season may well have got them that. Still can't seem 'em besting the Phillies though, even with Philadelphia's ageing offence and need to rely on Domonic Brown or a.n.other unproven quantity as part of the outfield. With improvements in Washington continuing too The Braves are in for a difficult season. The Mets, without Reyes (last year; .337/.384, 101 runs scored) and with nothing coming in, are in dire straights. The Astros had last year's bottom winning percentage at .346 and the target for New York this year must be to avoid that 'honour'. This division is looking as potentially bountiful and pleasantly unpredictable as its AL counterpart. Look for the wildcard to come from here.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

St. Louis have lost a manager and an Albert since their World Series year last year, and even with those two they only finished second in the division. The Brewers, meanwhile, have lost their own talisman in Fielder and will probably be without Braun for the start of the year. Of the respective replacements for both teams, Ramirez - who looked great for long stretches last year - looks better than the oft-injured Beltran. In any other division, with that power gone from the top two, you'd look to the remaining teams to step up but, really, can anyone? Houston certainly can't and are looking at a nothing year ahead of switching leagues and regrouping (the latter for the fifth or sixth consecutive year) in 2013. Cincinnati keep on getting tipped to 'do something' and never do but have at least picked up some useful pitching help. The Pirates look like relying on the pluck they showed last year again, rather than talent and skill. And the Cubs? Appointing Epstein is a good move but it's a long term one, the pitching still looks very suspect and throwing Rizzo in full time at 1st, especially on last year's evidence, is a dubious gamble. One or two moves during Spring Training could make all the difference but for now, lets say its Cincinnati's breakout year. Again. The key will be their own and Milwaukee's starts; how far ahead can the Reds get before Braun returns?

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Arizona bloomed down the stretch last year whilst San Fran slumped in a very un-champion like manner. LA were good for periods, especially with Kemp firing, and The Rockies started quickly. Has anyone done enough to change the status quo? Probably not. The Dodgers might find themselves able to make some moves late in the day and, on that basis (plus the oft-forgotten Kershaw - a true ace), let's say they'll hold off a promising Rockies team. On a side note: if they do make the moves, LA only have four wins to make up on The Giants from last year. They could, to the surprise of many, end up sneaking into the Wild Card reckoning.

AL East

1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Ah, this old chestnut. Last year Tampa broke into the NY/Boston love-fest amid a turbulent season for the Red Sox. The problem for The Sox is that this year could be just as bad. The noises coming from Bobby Valentine on team morale sans Francona and the ability of Crawford to be ready for opening day are not sounding fantastic and the pitching still looks - yes, you guessed it - suspect. The Yanks have made good, rather than expensive, moves, which is odd for them and even amid questions about their age, the infield (plus Granderson) still looks amazing. Toronto will go hard to make a dent this year whilst they're still guaranteed Bautista's power and much will depend on how the likes of Brett Lawrie, Travis Snider and Eric Thames kick on from pretty amazing rookie years. Speculators here could tap The Sox to go fourth, something which I can't see the owners allowing to happen - if they're down there at the trade deadline look for big moves, pride will stop them chalking a season up to 'development'. Jays and Rays to trade places instead. The Orioles aren't worth considering on any level.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

Cleveland surprised here last year but this was still the only division across both leagues to boast just one single team with a better-than-.500 average. That's bad. What it is also means beyond that is that talk of Fielder being constrained by Detroit's pitcher-friendly dimensions are completely redundant; whether he is or he isn't, and whether the Tigers do or don't miss Martinez, no-one is making up the 15-game gap Motor City built up last year. The rest of the standings are ifs, buts, maybes and won'ts. Cleveland won't repeat last year's success. Kansas are feeling positive but their success is based on if their prospects start to perform. There's no way Minnesota, with a set of healthy stars, Willingham and Marquis, should finish bottom again, but stranger things have happened. The White Sox need to learn to live without Ozzie and fast. Anyone's guess. I'll back a Twins turnaround, a Cleveland stasis and the other two making up the numbers. A pitching addition could see the Twins run down the Indians but with the latter adding Ubaldo, it's easier to back them to hold on at this point.

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

Seattle have been linked with everyone and got no-one and short of the outstanding King Felix, their rotation looks amongst the poorest in the league. The decline of Ichiro did not show any sign of stopping either. Their one bright point is that the A's seem to be trying their hardest to beat them into last. Everyone; fans, commentators, the team... me, seems confused with exactly what their trade plans are. The surprise addition of Cespedes though means that their outfield is, all of sudden, looking at least passably strong. The Angels have made their move for The Rangers top spot and with the addition of Pujols to a rotation boasting Weaver, Wilson and Haren and whilst they might not be quite as strong as some are saying (a couple of bookies have them at second favourite, behind the Phillies, to take the whole thing) they might just edge a strongly fought contest.

Josh Hamilton and the Media's Treatment of Addiction

Photo from 10 Step Baseball Power

'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday', the sub-header said on a Yahoo article from early on Friday. 'So what?', the passing reader might think, to a sub header that looks as revelatory as 'Bird Flew Tuesday' or 'Bonds Cheated Throughout Career'.

The truth of the line's power is in its insinuation and backstory.

Josh Hamilton, outfielder for the Texas Rangers, left the sport of baseball all together in 2003, having previously been declared one of its hottest prospects. Hamilton, for years prior and through large parts of '03-'05, when he remained out of the sport, was addicted, both to various drugs and to alcohol. He tells stories of spending a $4million signing bonus almost solely in the pursuit of mind-altering substances, of waking up in a ditch having passed out on crack and of having to borrow $2,000 from his father-in-law when a cheque to his drug dealer bounced.

He told all of this in a now-fairly-famous interview he gave to Sports Illustrated in 2008.

Since then, and in the years from 2005 when he was back in baseball, Hamilton has worked hard to clean up his act. He moved to the Rangers, who employed a sort of 'minder' to keep track of him. He gave the frank interview to SI and talked openly about how hard it was to kick addiction. He publicly admitted his relapses, asked forgiveness and sought the help he needed to overcome them.

In 2010 he was AL MVP. Last year he batted .298 with 25 home runs and 94 RBIs, despite missing a chunk of the season with a shoulder injury. The Rangers made the World Series for the second time in two years.

It now seems that, because 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday', the media have forgotten all of that.

More than the stats, the sad thing about that fact is they have forgotten how hard Hamilton has worked to literally pull himself out of a ditch. They have forgotten the constant self-effacement, the recognition that he had a problem which needed to be fixed, the dedication to his mentor-reliant regime.

They have also forgotten that relapses are the symptoms of a disease that will be ever-present. Hamilton will always, for the rest of his life, be battling alcohol and drugs. A relapse is - like a sneeze during the flu - a symptom of his disease. Like other relapses he has suffered, it is reasonable to expect that Hamilton will admit to his mistake, continue to seek and pay for the help he has had over the last few years and move on.

It is reasonable to expect this... except if you are the media.

In Jeff Passan's article for Yahoo, the writer invokes Hamilton's new daughter, questions whether he will now get the long contract he wants from the Rangers, trawls up the bawdy details of his previous relapses and then, at the end, has the temerity to suggest that he understands Hamilton's battle, just before he signs off by proclaiming his actions those of 'just another guy who doesn't care'.

All of that written without any details of what or why 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday'. All of that written without a care or thought for how hard Josh Hamilton has worked to be a 'guy who does care' over the last few years. All of that written, sadly, inevitably, with the aim of getting clicks on a sensationalist story.

A final thought for The Texas Rangers: what message do you send out to Josh Hamilton if you don't give him his extended contract? What message are you sending out to others trying to recover from diseases like this?

I hope, although I accept it is unlikely, that what 'Josh Hamilton Drank Monday' turns out to have been water, Fanta or iced tea. I hope that if it is not, he continues to be one of Major League Baseball's most exciting players. I hope he apologises, to his fans, family, team and those who see him as someone to look up to.

I hope that if one or all of the above turn out to be true, that in that climate of opinion, Jeff Passan attempts to write an article praising him or his abilities because, if he does, I'll be the first person to tell him what 'Jeff Passan Wrote Friday'.

Neil Warnock And The Blame Game

Neil Warnock gave an interview to the BBC this week in which he blamed pretty much everyone apart from himself for getting him the sack from QPR earlier in the month.

This is nothing new for Warnock. Whilst most managers are not averse to throwing a bit of stick at a referee when they lose a game, barely a match goes by without Warnock singling out an official as culpable for his team's poor performance.

Blaming twitter, the chairman, Joey Barton, modern wages, Mark Hughes' agent and everything else under the sun for his lack of a job is merely one step up from blaming a referee for a loss. Warnock is doing what he as always done: shifting the blame from himself to often poorly defined external forces, all apparently intent on making his teams lose.

His record speaks for itself. Where other managers - notably Arsene Wenger - play the blame game and then fall back on trophies and impressive winning records, Warnock cannot.

In 21 games under his stewardship this season, QPR won just four of them. The twelve losses included a 4-0 opening day defeat at the hands of now-nineteenth place Bolton, a 6-0 drubbing by Martin Jol's inconsistent Fulham and two 2-1 losses to Norwich, one of the teams QPR were promoted with, at home and away respectively. His win percentage in charge of QPR in the Premier League was a dismal 19%.

Warnock's other stint in the Premier League was as manager of Sheffield United, whom he got relegated in the 2006/2007 season, blaming Liverpool's much-changed team who lost 1-0 to Fulham during their preparation for that seasons Champions League final. Whilst that result may have been the one that broke the camel's back - the camel presumably taking full blame for the relegation - it does not tell the story of a season.

Sheffield United won ten games, drew eight, lost twenty and finished eighteenth, on the same number of losses as fellow relegated sides Charlton and the dismal, twenty-eight total point-scoring, Watford of that year. His win percentage in 2006/2007 was 26%, i.e; in a season where he got a club relegated he was winning more games than his 2011/2012 QPR side were when he was sacked.

Add Warnock's Premier League stints together and his winning average comes out at just short of 24%. In other words: it will take Warnock a touch more than four games in any given Premier League season before his side registers a win. This is not the record of someone who, over the course of fifty-nine Premier League games, has lost the odd point to a bad refereeing performance. The only way to explain it as such is in the case that Warnock was playing the referee up front and the official kept on missing open nets. This, demonstrably, has not been the case.

The reasons for Warnock's good performance in lower leagues (he got Sheffield and QPR promoted to the top flight) is too easy to write off as happening just because the quality of football is worse. Clearly, Warnock has got the best out of some decent teams and has done so whilst professing ignorance of 'tactics'. Again, singling this out as the root cause is too easy - tactics are necessary just as much in the lower leagues as they are in the top flight.

That said, when you are consistently successful in one league and consistently abject in another, that tells a separate, very internal, story in its own right. Warnock needs to come to terms with the fact that for all the referees, camels, Joey Bartons and other malignant persecutors of his clubs, he just does not seem, currently, to have what it takes to be a Premier League manager. The admittance of this fact could do him wonders.

With thanks to @Afrofilmviewer for The Guardian link.

Football Racism: Why Calling for Blatter's Head is Only the Beginning

screen capture from Blatter's interview, courtesy of BBC

Writing for The Daily Mail last month, Steve Doughty finishes his article about the Patrice Evra and Anton Ferdinand racism incidents by concluding that,

'Mr Evra and Mr Ferdinand, I know you feel insulted. But perhaps in this case you could just put up with it and get on with the game.'

Similarly, FIFA president Sepp Blatter, in an interview yesterday, made comments that may very well finally spell the end of his tenure in charge of football's governing body, suggesting that,

'The one affected by [racism] should say this is a game and shake hands.'

Blatter's quotes will be condemned around the world and, indeed, already have been by Rio (brother of Anton) Ferdinand, amongst other prominent footballing figures.

Doughty's comments, by comparison, were condemned at the time by a handful of commenters on The Mail's website (seventy-one at the final count).

The point is thus: until racism, in all its forms, is stamped out completely, treated with a zero tolerance attitude and singled out wherever it may be, it will continue to prosper and seep into culture.

The world, and, mainly, the press, will string Blatter up from a lamppost because he's a prominent figure who makes good headlines. Doughty, by comparison, seems only to have had to weather a storm that barely reached the level of a gentle breeze.

Society's tolerance of someone suggesting basically the same thing as Blatter, writing for a national newspaper with several thousand readers, allows the idea that racism is merely 'a little bit naughty' to flourish and prosper.

Doughty's article should have been treated with the same level of disdain that Blatter's comments were. We should have, to coin a FIFA phrase which now looks distinctly hypocritical, shown racism the red card. Our continued acceptance of people who fail to do just that informs, breeds and allows a feeling of tolerance towards the intolerant, a problem that is, sadly, not limited to Mr. Blatter and will not be solved merely by demanding his head.

Brief Madrid Moments

Fans in the street market.

Looking out over one of the central parks.

Viva la Vida, vegetarian buffet-style tapas.

Mojitos in Viva la Vida.

Mysterious package...

...may contain lovely pastries.

Inside Vicente Calderon. Atletico 3 - 1 Real Zaragoza.

In one of the gardens in front of the palace.

San Miguel market, one of the best places in Madrid.

Ham stall in the market.

Sushi, olives and fresh juice in San Miguel.

Thick hot chocolate and donuts for dunkin'.

Boating in El Retiro park.

Thai for tea. Crab claws very fiddly.

Looking over the plains at Toledo.

I was obviously doing something hilarious.

Inside the Benabeu.

A Real Madrid/Liverpool 'legend' in the hall of fame.

Real's nine European cups.

The next Mourinho?

One In Vermilion

Much of the weekend was spent at Vermilion Cinnabar in East Manchester. I say 'much of' when actually I mean 'three or four hours' but, when you're drinking £8.50 cocktails, it can feel like a lot longer than that.

Vermilion have one of those annoying websites with a plethora of menu options, music, video and animated text whenever you click through something and so, for the many people this will instantly turn off, let's just say that it could summarise itself easily as 'one of those places you can head to when you want to feel a bit chic and with the 'in crowd'. Case in point: to find the food menu you have to click the 'taste' button, which is only completely logical if you're a hipster who operates purely by labelling things with the sense they're related to.

The location is by no means great - it's out of town and has nothing else within walking distance... unless you fancy a trip to the cash and carry - but a taxi from the Deansgate area cost under £10 each way, which for a car full of people is about equal to your standard Saturday night entrance fee - something which the Vermilion bar doesn't have.

We didn't eat but the restaurant seemed lively and I'd be happy to make a return visit to check it out separately.

The upstairs bar area has a couple of regular tables dotted around the place and then several bed-like 'pods', which fit perhaps ten people at a push and are presumably favoured by those who don't like these things we all call 'chairs'. Harumphing aside, they looked quite comfortable and are probably a pretty good idea for birthday parties and larger social gatherings. Cocktails are as expensive as everywhere else and the 'standard' beer is Singha, which at £3.50 a bottle is hardly cheap but hey, it's possible to pay more without looking too far. The constantly-colour-changing 'globe' lighting was a particularly nice touch to the decor and made people look up at the ceiling on a regular basis, normally with this sort of expression on their face...

The service was good and the addition of table service when there was a wait on for drinks to be made was really welcome. Points lost slightly for only offering Vodka Martinis in the 'stirred' variety. What would Bond say. Not that it put me off drinking twelve.

Why Low Priced Cup Football is Pointless

Gresty Road - home of Crewe Alexandra - on a particularly 'busy' night. Picture from Soccerway.

At the start of the season the BBC revealed the findings of their Price Of Football survey. There was nothing particularly surprising in it. The Premier League table, for example, showed that at some of the London clubs in particular (Chelsea, Arsenal, Fulham, Tottenham), vast fees (£100-£80 in some cases) were exchanged for tickets to watch ninety-minutes of entertainment and have the privilege of paying £4 for a pie (Arsenal) in the 15-minute half time break.

My local league team - Crewe Alexandra, League 2 - were neither the worst offenders nor the best practitioners in their division. At £19.50 for most games they're hardly bargain basement but considering Gillingham fans have to stump up £26 to watch their team its not quite the rip-off it could be.

Whether North or South, the unifying factor that most league clubs (outside of the Premiership) have is that they struggle to fill their stadiums. Crewe, for example, will get an average attendance of something like 3,000 fans into their 10,000-seater stadium during the course of the season. It's not hard to see why.

I'm off to Crewe twice this week. Tonight, the mighty Alex take on Macclesfield in the Johnstone's Paint Trophy (JPT) Second Round, whilst at the weekend its Southend in the league. The JPT is generally used by league clubs to encourage new fans and provide bargain cup football for loyal supporters who go to the league games every week. Tonight I'll pay £8 for my ticket. If I had a child (under-11), their admission would be included free. The club bar pre-match is fairly cheap and family-friendly; assuming I wanted a couple of pints and my metaphorical child wanted a couple of J20s it'd be around £4 per round. A pie at half time is £2.90 and a drink is about £1.50. Total cost of the evening for parent and non-existent (in this case) child: £24.80. Not bad.

Kids cinema tickets can cost as little as £1

Until you compare it to the other attractions available. Crewe's local cinema (Reel Crewe) doesn't have anything 11-year old friendly this Wednesday, but from Friday it's showing The Lion King 3D. Adult ticket for next Wednesday night: £5.80. Kid's ticket for a Wednesday night: £5.80. There's no pricing for food and drink on Reel's website but I know they do 'meal deal' style popcorn and drink combos for about £6. Two of them plus the ticket prices: £23.60.

The prices then are comparable and if you assume that actually I wouldn't have the couple of alcoholic drinks budgeted in the first example then the football becomes very attractive.

But wait, this is a cup game, priced low to attract new fans, isn't it? So lets say Crewe play fantastic, my metaphorical kid loves it, 'can we go back next Saturday please, Dad?'

Cost of an adult league ticket to the Southend game: £19.50. Children's (under-11) regular ticket: £5. Pies and drinks at the same price as the other night: £16.80. Cost of Saturday at the football: £41.30. Not far off double.

I'd compare that to the price of the cinema on a Saturday but there's no point. Prices may generally be higher at the weekend (or actually, when you consider the kid's club at £1 a ticket, sometimes lower) but never in a million years will two tickets, two drinks and two popcorns set you back over forty-quid. The cinema reduces its prices on a Wednesday because no-one used to go to the cinema on a Wednesday and they don't need to encourage loyalty to their medium of entertainment. Their Wednesday prices stay that price for the entire year. The football reduces prices to get fans in to unattractive games (maybe one or two a year, before Crewe go out of the cup) but provide no incentive to carry on attending the games after that.

When faced with the option of a football game or a cinema visit (or swimming pool trip, or kick about in the local park and a burger afterwards), the cost-conscious parent only has one option. Crewe's stadium, and many others like it, will stay over half-empty for most of the year. There are many reasons for this but not least of them is the fact that football fails to accept that it needs to compete on price with other leisure activities vying for punter's attention on a consistent basis. The odd inexpensive cup game, as a token gesture to parents who have bigger worries, isn't going to change season-average attendances, or magically create thousands of hungry fans, desperate to spend twice the amount of money they could elsewhere.